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With Two-Goal Lead Over Timo Werner, Robert Lewandowski Still Leading Odds to Win Bundesliga Top Scorer

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 24, 2020 · 8:10 AM PDT

Robert Lewandowski has been leading the race all season to be the top scorer in the Bundesliga. He opened as a -150  favorite and is now -250, leading Timo Werner by two goals. Is the race over or does Werner offer good value?
  • Lewandowski odds-on to win the Bundesliga Golden Boot
  • RB Leipzig’s Werner only two goals behind
  • Both on course for record-breaking seasons

Robert Lewandowski has been leading the race all season to be the top scorer in the Bundesliga. He opened as a -150  favorite and is now -250, leading Timo Werner by two goals. But Werner was +800 to start the year and has now come into +175, so the bookies think he has a chance.

With Jadon Sancho in third place, eight goals behind Werner and ten behind Lewandowski, this is now a two-horse race, but which way will it go? We’ll take a closer look.

Bundesliga Top Goalscorer 2019/20 Odds

Player Goals scored (02/05/20) Odds
Robert Lewandowski 22 -250
Timo Werner 20 +175
Jadon Sancho 12 +10000
Marco Reus 11 +20000
Rouwen Hennings 11 +25000
Phillippe Coutinho 6 +50000
Nils Petersen 8 +50000
Serge Gnabry 7 +50000
Wout Weghorst 7 +100000
Luca Waldschmidt 4 +100000
Thorgan Hazard 4 +100000

Odds taken on Feb. 4

Narrow Lead for Lewy

Lewandowski has been the leading scorer in the Bundesliga for four of the last six seasons, going back to his pre-Bayern, BvB days and looks on course to win it again. Realistically, only Werner can stop him but, while the gap is only two goals, the Pole has led the race since the start of the campaign.

For Lewandowski, this has potential to be his best-ever Bundesliga season with him currently averaging more than a goal-a-game, for the first time. 22 goals in his 20 league games is an outstanding return (1.1 goals per game) and is a significant improvement on his 0.67 goals per game average of last season. His previous best was in season 2017/18 when he netted 29 goals in 30 games at a rate of 0.98.

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On Course for a Record Breaker

Barring injury, if he’s able to continue scoring at his current rate for the remaining 14 games of this season, Lewandowski is on course to score a record-breaking 35 goals; a feat not achieved in the Bundesliga since the 1970s in the era of the legendary Gerd Muller.

Of course, there are plenty of variables that can prevent this happening – injury, loss of form, etc – but what is clear is that although now in his thirties, Lewandowski is in the form of his life and is playing in a Bayern team that, while not of the highest quality, is carving out plenty of goalscoring opportunities.

Werner the Better Converter

One stat worth noting is that Lewandowski scored his 22 goals from 94 shots, the one area where those who fancy a bet on Werner may take heart. For his 20 goals so far, the RB Leipzig striker has taken 84 shots – a significantly better conversion rate.

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It’s also worth noting that Werner has scored his 20 goals so far from 20 games, and so with 14 games to go, if he stays fit and on form, he has the capability, at this rate, to reach 34 – smashing his previous Bundesliga best (2016/17) by a massive 13 goals.

Greater Heights

What this tells us above all, is that this season Werner and Lewandowski are pushing each other to even greater heights and, as their respective teams look likely to take it to the wire to decide the destiny of the Bundesliga trophy, these two will be fighting for the Golden Boot up to the final game of the season.

There really is very little to choose, both between the teams and their star strikers, but in the same way I expect Bayern’s extra experience and know-how to give them the edge, I expect Lewandowski to maintain his two-goal advantage right through to the end of the campaign.

Pick: Lewandowski to win the Bundesliga’s Golden Boot (-250)

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