- Atalanta has won six consecutive matches and scored 15 goals since the Serie A restart following the COVID-19 shutdown
- Does the unfashionable Italian side offer great value to win the UCL at odds of +1200?
- Analysis of this possibility and comparisons of the odds on all clubs follow in the story below
As they ready for their UCL quarter-final match, on paper, Atalanta is the clear underdog. Paris Saint-Germain are the side with the tradition, the history, and the superstar-laden lineup.
However, Atalanta is the squad that is burning red hot on the pitch.
The unfashionable Italian side has won six in a row. Going back to the pre-COVID days, Atalanta is on a nine-match win streak and has won 12 of their last 13 played.
At +1200, they also offer intrinsic value in the 2020 Champions League odds.
Odds to Win 2019-20 UEFA Champions League
Odds taken July 10
The remaining stages of the UCL, from the quarter-finals onwards, will be played as a mini-tournament in Portugal. All of those matches will be played over one leg, beginning with quarter-final matches from August 12-15.
Atalanta are currently flying at a high altitude. They’ve won their last 11 matches in all competitions. That includes their last nine in Italy’s top flight.
They haven’t dropped a league match since January 20th. Atalanta ended Lazio’s 21-match unbeaten streak with a 3-2 verdict on February 29th. They rebounded from two goals down to win that match.
Since returning from the COVID-19-induced pause to the Serie A season, Atalanta have rattled off six successive victories, finding the back of the net 15 times in the process. They’d scored 20 times in their last five matches prior to the enforced break.
They’ll get another test of their mettle on Saturday when the Banshees, fresh off a 2-0 defeat of Sampdoria, head to Allianz Stadium to face Serie A leaders and fellow UCL contenders Juventus. Juve have won 14 of 15 on their home pitch this season. However, they come home after blowing a 2-0 lead and losing 4-2 at AC Milan.
When France declared that the Ligue 1 season would not resume, it was a good news/bad news scenario for PSG. They were declared champions. That’s the good news.
However, it also means that when they face Atalanta, the French champs won’t have played a match that matters since March 11th.
PSG fans who think they got a good draw with Atalanta are like the family in Parasite who didn’t know there was someone hiding in the basement
— David Amoyal (@DavidAmoyal) July 10, 2020
Yes, PSG have Neymar and Kylian Mbappe. The French side also have plenty of rust to scrape off their game. Generally, the last aspect to return to a team that’s sat for some time is stout defensive play.
Facing the top-scoring team in Italy could be a recipe for disaster. Atalanta leads Serie A with 85 goals. That’s 18 more tallies than second-place Lazio.
While they’ve been scoring, the Banshees have also kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches.
Atalanta’s Clear Path
Atalanta’s forward trio of Josip Ilicic, Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata have combined for 46 goals. Midfielder Alejandro Gomez leads Serie A with 13 assists.
Unless you haven’t been paying attention or are Thomas Rongen, you’re aware that Atalanta are a dangerous foe.
"Since the restart Atalanta have struggled in the Serie A a little bit"
Except that the facts tell a different story: 6 matches since the restart, 6 wins for @Atalanta_BC
— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) July 10, 2020
As well, their path to the final isn’t fraught with land mines. Win against PSG and they get either RB Leipzig or Atletico Madrid in the semifinals.
Traditional powerhouse sides like Manchester City, Barcelona, Juventus and Bayern Munich all landed on the other side of the draw.
It’s a wild and wacky year in the world of sports. There couldn’t be a more apt time to roll the dice with an upstart longshot.
Pick: Atalanta (+1200)
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