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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Europa League Leg 2

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Mar 15, 2023 · 1:02 PM PDT

Europa League Trophy
May 26, 2021, Gdansk, Poland: SOCCER - UEFA Europa League, final, Villarreal CF vs Manchester United. Image shows the trophy. (Photo by GEPA/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
  • The first leg between Union Saint-Gilloise and Union Berlin ended 3-3
  • Union Berlin are +125 favorites to win the second leg inside 90 minutes in Thursday’s Europa League picks
  • Read below for our full preview, statistics and a Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin prediction

Europa League matches are played on a regular basis at this stage of the season. Union Saint-Gilloise and Union Berlin drew 3-3 in the German capital just last week and are back in action this Thursday to decide which team progresses. We have our Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin prediction here.

The hosts are looking to become the first Belgian team to reach the last eight of the Europa League since 2017. This is already Union Berlin’s best run in continental competition after exiting the Europa Conference League at the group stage last term.

These teams are meeting for the fourth time this season after they each claimed a 1-0 win in their group stage matchups. Union Saint-Gilloise topped the section ahead of their rivals from Berlin, Braga and Malmo. Union Berlin saw off Ajax in the playoff to reach this round.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Union Saint-Gilloise +220
Union Berlin +125
Draw +220

Europa League odds tab Union Berlin as the favorites for this one. They are in at -150 to qualify. The pedigree of the Bundesliga compared to the Jupiler Pro League contributes to Union Berlin being favorites on the road here. Union Berlin are +125, good for a 44.4% implied probability of winning the match inside normal time, with Union Saint-Gilloise handed an implied probability of 31.3%.

Odds as of March 15th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel Sportsbook promo to bet on all Europa League matches.


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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Over/Under and Spread

The over/under is set at just 2.5 goals despite a six-goal thriller at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in the first leg. Bookies are expecting a cagier affair in Belgium with a short price of -134 on under 2.5. The over is at +110.

The visitors are favorites to win the match, but Union Berlin -1 has lengthy odds of +360. Both teams to score is at -122, which is an implied probability of 55%.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Preview

This season has been a spectacular one for Union Saint-Gilloise, including winning their Europa League group. After a blip of a four-match winless streak, the Les Unionistes have won either side of the first leg draw with Union Berlin. Their form is trending in the right direction as they look to make history under the lights on Thursday.

The same cannot be said for the visitors. Die Eisernen have won just once in seven matches, and have failed to score three times in that period. Their early-season form was never sustainable as their unimpressive expected numbers indicated, but this run of form has come at a bad time. The club from the capital have fallen to fourth in the Bundesliga, and are at serious risk of being knocked out of European competition here.

In general, Union Saint-Gilloise have been more a front-foot team than Union Berlin, but part of that can be attributed to the standard of their domestic leagues. Union Berlin had 65% possession (far above their season average), and 20 shots to Union Saint-Gilloise’s seven in the first leg.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Lineups & Injuries

Union Saint-Gilloise Projected Lineup: Moris; Kandouss, Burgess, Heyden; Nieuwkoop, Amani, Azzouzi, Lynen, Lapoussin; Vertessen, Boniface.

Union Saint-Gilloise Injuries: None.

Union Berlin Projected Lineup: Rønnow; Doekhi, Knoche, Leite; Trimmel, Thorsby, Khedira, Haberer, Juranovic; Becker, Behrens.

Union Berlin Injuries: Schafer, Roussillon.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Statistics

Union Saint-Gilloise
Union Berlin
13.5 Shots taken per match 11.6
50.8% Possession 43%
100 yellows, 5 reds Cards 69 yellows, 4 reds
453.7 Passes per match 379.2

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Prediction

Generally, Union Berlin’s matches have been low-scoring this season. They have relied on a well-organized defense and good finishing to stage a surprise top-four push in the Bundesliga. Only one team in the top flight of German football has seen over 2.5 goals land less often.

This over has hit in five of Union Saint-Gilloise’s last six in all competitions, including the first-leg thriller. They had a 3-2 win and another 3-3 draw in their home matches during the group stage but fell 1-0 at Joseph Marien Stadium when Union Berlin visited.

Having returned to form, Union Saint-Gilloise looks great value to at least force extra time in our Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin prediction. This will be more like the first leg than their two encounters in 2022.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Union Berlin Picks: Union Saint-Gilloise to win or draw and over 1.5 total goals (+120)

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