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USA vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer

Nov 12, 2021 · 8:13 AM PST

USA vs Mexico
United States' Ricardo Pepi, (14) celebrates scoring his side's second goal against Honduras during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
  • First-place Mexico visits the second-placed US on Friday, November 12th, for a crucial CONCACAF World Cup qualifier
  • USA has won the last two head-to-head matches, most recently in the Gold Cup final back in August
  • Read on for betting odds, a full preview, and the best bet for this CONCACAF World Cup qualifying match

For the first time in over 14 years, the United States will enter a competitive match against Mexico riding a two-game winning streak. Not only did Gregg Berhalter’s men get the upper hand in the Nations League final – courtesy of a Christian Pulisic extra-time penalty – but they repeated the feat in August in the Gold Cup final.

With three points separating first-place Mexico from the second-place Americans when they meet on Friday, November 12 in World Cup qualifying, the US will take aim at a three-peat of competitive wins over their southern neighbor for the first time.

USA vs Mexico Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
United States vs Mexico USA -0.5 (+160) | MEX +0.5  (-220) USA +165 | MEX +180
DRAW +195
Ov 2.5 (+135) | Un 2.5 (-175)

Odds as of November 12th at DraftKings

USA Struggling for Consistency

While the back-to-back wins against Mexico in the summer were a historic achievement, Berhalter’s team has struggled for consistency since its World Cup qualifying campaign began.

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The team enjoyed wins over Jamaica and Costa Rica in the previous round of games last month but also lost in Panama.

And the first trio of games, back in September, featured a pair of draws with Canada and Honduras to go with a resounding win in Honduras.

However, the US also has a 17-game unbeaten record at home to fall back on, with their last defeat on American soil coming back in September 2019, when they lost 3-0 to … Mexico.

In Pepi They Trust

While the US has experimented with a number of different strikers up top, the debut given to Ricardo Pepi in the Honduras game paid immediate dividends. The FC Dallas forward – who chose to play for the USA over Mexico – scored the winner in that game and followed that up with both goals in the 2-0 win over Jamaica, giving him three goals in four appearances.

The pressure will be firmly on the 18-year-old here though, as the US strikers’ depth chart is somewhat lacking, with Gyasi Zardes out injured. On top of that, the likes of Daryl Dike, Josh Sargent and Jordan Pefok were all left out of the squad this time around.

Berhalter will also be without Barcelona’s Serginho Dest, who scored in last month’s win over Costa Rica, with the wingback missing out with a back injury.

Can Mexico Keep Rolling?

Games against the US apart, which head coach Tato Martino puts down to a couple of set pieces, his Mexican team has been in a rich vein of form of late. El Tri are rolling through this eight-team World Cup qualifying cycle, unbeaten through the first six games with four wins and two draws.

They are also the joint leading scorers at this juncture, with 10 goals from 10 different players, and they also have the most stingy defense, surrendering just three goals.

However, Mexico did suffer defeat last time out, losing 3-2 to Ecuador in a friendly fixture at the end of October. On top of that, El Tri will be without center back Nestor Araujo, who misses out after picking up a red card in the last qualifier against El Salvador.

USA vs Mexico World Cup Qualifying Stats

3-1-2 Record 4-0-2
9 Goals For 10
4 Goals Against 3

Recent Rivalry Tilted Towards US

Friday’s match will be the 73rd meeting of these two long-standing CONCACAF rivals, and while Mexico owns a 36-21-15 advantage, recent matches have swung in the Americans’ favor.

Since 2000, the US owns a 16-9-6 edge against Mexico. Going back to 1990, that number grows even more in the World Cup qualifying domain, where the USA owns a 4-1-1 edge. All four wins came in the state of Ohio, which is coincidentally enough where Friday’s match will be played.

Best Bet: Draw (+195)

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