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Valencia Favored for Top 4 La Liga Finish Ahead of Final Weekend

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Valencia hope to be flying the flag for La Liga in the Champions League next season. Photo By: Pixabay.com
  • Current two-way points tie with Getafe for Champions League spot
  • Narrow lead in head-to head goal-difference
  • Sixth-placed Sevilla are outsiders to climb from sixth place

Valencia lead the way by the most narrow of margins as they prepare to battle with Getafe and Sevilla for Spain’s fourth Champions League qualifying spot on La Liga’s final weekend.

They are in the coveted fourth place and favored by BetOnline to seal the deal at -300.

Although, fifth-placed Getafe are close behind in a thrilling tussle, they are priced at +250, with sixth-placed Sevilla wide outsiders at +4000.

La Liga Top 4 Odds

Team Odds at BetOnline
Valencia -300
Getafe +250
Sevilla +4000

*Odds taken 05/16/2019

Valencia and Getafe are equal on 58 points. If they remain equal after this weekend’s fixtures, Valencia would claim the place. There is more value in taking a chance on Getafe, however.

Complex System of Breaking Ties

That is because they have a goal-difference of plus-one using the complex Spanish system of breaking such deadlocks by adding up the scores of the head-to-head matches between the rival teams.

Things could very well be settled this way because both sides have final fixtures which they may win.

The top three places have already been secured by Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.

Valencia travel to 16th-placed Vallodolid on Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 10:15 am EST. Getafe, the capital city club which is usually in the shadow of the giants of Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, are at home to 14th-placed Villareal at the same time.

While Sevilla have 56 points and are at home against seventh-placed Athletic Bilbao on Saturday.

The top three places have already been secured by Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.

Fine Balance Between Fourth and Fifth Place

The goal-difference advantage enjoyed by Valencia was established with a 1-0 win at Getafe’s Coliseum Alfonso Perez home last November.

Getafe had held the fourth spot for 11 of the previous 12 rounds of the competition. But a 2-0 defeat by champions Barcelona last Sunday meant they slipped into fifth place.

The sides then drew 0-0 at Valencia’s Mestella stadium HQ in March. It could hardly be more finely-balanced.

Getafe had held the fourth spot for 11 of the previous 12 rounds of the competition. But a 2-0 defeat by champions Barcelona last Sunday meant they slipped into fifth place.

A 3-1 win at Alaves allowed Valencia to climb above them.

Sevilla Cling On To Slim Hope

Should Valencia and Getafe lose on Saturday, Sevilla will take fourth spot with a victory against Bilbao.

If Sevilla win and Valencia and Getafe draw, all three will be equal on 59 points.

But should it be a two-way tie between Sevilla and one of either Valencia or Getafe, Sevilla will miss out.

In the instance of a three-way tie on 59 points between the three clubs, Valencia would take fourth place thanks to another complicated oddity of the La Liga system.

In the goal-difference head-to-head, Sevilla are minus-five against Getafe after a 0-2 home defeat and a 0-3 setback in Madrid.

Against Valencia, they are minus-one after a goalless draw and 0-1 defeat.

Three-Way  Points Tie is Possible

In the instance of a three-way tie on 59 points between the three clubs, Valencia would take fourth place thanks to another complicated oddity  of the La Liga system.

On current form, Valencia have become prolific at just the right time. They have scored nine times in their previous two games.

Such a stalemate is decided upon the accumulation of points in the league matches between the three teams.

Valencia have won eight points in their four fixtures against Getafe and Sevilla. For Getafe, the total is seven points. Sevilla have just one.

On current form, Valencia have become prolific at just the right time despite their Europa League exit against Arsenal. They have scored nine times in their previous two league games. A 6-2 thrashing of Huesca preceded the defeat of Alaves last weekend.

That followed a run of two defeats by Atletico Madrid and Eibar which threatened their Champions League hopes. They drew 1-1 in January against Saturday’s opponents Vallodolid.

Only One Win in Four

Getafe have won only once in their last four league games. After a 0-0 draw at home against Real Madrid on April 25, they lost 2-1 at Real Sociedad.

They then defeated Girona 2-1 before succumbing to Barcelona last weekend.

Sevilla lost 0-1 against Girona and 0-3 at home  against Leganes before last weekend’s 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid.

Pick: Getafe (+250)

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John Dillon is a leading member of the UK's sporting media, having spent three decades as a national newspaper soccer and sports writer, broadcaster and author. He has covered five World Cups, six European Championships and was Chief Sports Writer at the Daily Express for 14 years.