- Villarreal hosts Sevilla in the 35th match of their respective seasons on May 8th at 10:15 am ET. Villarreal are +130 moneyline favorites
- Currently, Sevilla hold a delicate lead in third place, just three points above Atletico Madrid, while Villarreal sit twelve points back in eighth place
- Get the Villarreal vs Sevilla odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
Only four matchdays remain in La Liga this season and Matchday 35 is highlighted by Villarreal vs Sevilla. Villarreal will try to bounce back in this game after an emotional departure in the Champions League at the midweek.
After drawing level with Liverpool in front of the El Madrigal faithful, a decrepit second half performance from Gerónimo Rulli lead to a 5-2 defeat on aggregate. Nonetheless, they should be spurred on by the fact they battled back against one of Europe’s best sides.
In truth, they have less to play for at this point of the season. Villarreal could potentially snag a Conference League spot, but Sevilla are the hungrier dog in the fight. Julen Lopetegui will surely want Champions League football next season, and to do so, he needs to treat every game like a final.
Villarreal vs Sevilla Odds
Odds as of May 7 at Barstool Sportsbook
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The moneyline for this match narrowly favors the Yellow Submarine with La Liga odds of +130. While Unai Emery’s side is near the bottom half of the table, they are the fourth best side in La Liga when playing at home.
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 6, 2022
Over/Under and Spread
Additionally, this game is expected to be quite tame in terms of goals. The Under on 2.5 total goals is the expected result with odds of -132. Sevilla has stayed under this mark in eight of their last nine games on the road in La Liga play.
Conversely, the Over on the same amount has much more favorable odds at +107. This pick has hit in 60% of their last ten head-to-head meetings in La Liga.
Finally, there is tremendous value in the Sevilla draw no bet with odds of +133.
Villarreal vs Sevilla Prediction
Now, my interest in this game really stems from Villarreal. Seeing how teams respond after hard moments really depicts how well they are managed. Aside from the two Liverpool defeats, Villarreal also managed to lose against Alaves last weekend in La Liga thanks to a tragically slow start.
Villarreal vs Sevilla La Liga Statistics
|1.59||Goals per game||1.47|
|1.70||Expected goals per game||1.17|
|0.97||Goals allowed per game||0.82|
|1.70||Expected goals allowed per game||1.02|
|83.9%||Passing Accuracy %||84.8%|
|12.2||Shots per game||11.4|
However, Emery has managed to pick his team up on several occasions this season. More specifically, we have seen this side rattle off three undefeated runs of five or more games during this tumultuous campaign.
— Villarreal CF English (@VillarrealCFen) May 7, 2022
In turn, I favor a positive end to the season for Villarreal. Expect some solid rotation and a good showing in their penultimate home match for the season. Remember, Sevilla’s offense is not very threatening. Playing Liverpool twice before this match was like using bat weights for the likes of Pau Torres and Raul Albiol.
Lopetegui’s Mediocre Attack
Nonetheless, Sevilla are in third place and demand their own levels of respect. Back in December, they won the reverse fixture thanks to a lone goal from Lucas Ocampos in the 16th minute. The Argentinean forward has probably been their most positive attacker on the year, scoring six goals in La Liga play.
📊 Máximos goleadores del #SevillaFC en LaLiga 21/22:
1️⃣ Rafa Mir (9)
2️⃣ Lucas Ocampos (6)
3️⃣ Papu Gómez (5)
4️⃣ Erik Lamela (4)
5️⃣ Diego Carlos (3) pic.twitter.com/3WfcCssqt8
— José Manuel Rodríguez (@jmrodriguezper) April 9, 2022
But, it is more than evident Sevilla have no attacking depth. The likes of Rafa Mir, Jesus Corona and Erik Lamela are all decent options, but none stand out as a daunting threat.
Considering Villarreal have more goals at home than anyone not named Real Madrid means that one of the aforementioned names will have to put in some work in on the offensive third.
Villarreal vs Sevilla Projected Lineups and Injuries
Villarreal Projected Lineup: Rulli, Estupinan, Mandi, Albiol, Foyth, Coquelin, Iborra, Parejo, Lo Celso, Chukwueze, Moreno
Villarreal Injuries & Suspensions: Moreno & Danjuma
Sevilla Projected Lineup: Bounou, Acuna, Carlos, Kounde, Navas, Rakitic, Jordan, Ocampos, Gomez, Corona, En-Nesyri
Sevilla Injuries & Suspensions: Fernando, Martial (questionable) & Rekik
Villarreal vs Sevilla Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for this match is the Villarreal moneyline with odds of +107. The Yellow Submarine are great at home and I think a reception for the ages at El Madrigal will push them to victory.
Pick: Villarreal ML (+107)