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Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Odds & Prediction – Bundesliga Round 13

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Nov 26, 2021 · 6:51 AM PST

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
Wolfsburg's John Brooks, left, and Dortmund's Manuel Akanji challenge for the ball during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg in Dortmund, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, Pool)
  • Wolfsburg host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga’s 13th Matchday on Saturday, November 27th, at 9:30 am EST
  • The hosts sit in sixth place on 20 points, while Dortmund who have had a rocky season so far surprisingly sit all the way up in second place on 28 points
  • Get the odds, our analysis, and betting prediction below

This weekend, Wolfsburg take on Borussia Dortmund in what is a massive clash near the top of the Bundesliga table. Wolfsburg currently find themselves in sixth place, however a win could move them all the way to third. Conversely, a win for Borussia Dortmund is imperative to keep their race with Bayern Munich for the Meisterschale close.

However, neither of these sides have been at the races recently. Both Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund lost their midweek fixtures in the Champions League to Sporting CP and Sevilla, respectively. Now, Wolfsburg would need a win on the final matchday versus Lille while Dortmund have been eliminated.

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund WOL +0.5 (+105) | BVB -0.5 (-130) WOL +200 | BVB +135 | DRAW +250 Ov 2.5 (-135) | Un 2.5 (+110)

Odds as of Nov 25th at DraftKings

Regardless, the loss away from home to Sevilla seems more like a blip in form for Wolfsburg. Borussia Dortmund on the other hand, have lost three out of their last four in all competitions.

Those losses came against Ajax, RB Leipzig and Sporting CP; all extremely talented sides. Despite this, Borussia Dortmund have a squad that should be competing at these high levels, which makes the form more concerning.

Wolfsburg’s Performance Under Florian Kohfeldt

The main storyline in this match is the recent success for Wolfsburg with Florian Kohfeldt as manager. The 39-year-old was the most recent manager of Werder Bremen and his appointment came after the sacking of Mark van Bommel. Wolfsburg were dismal at the start of the season under van Bommel, failing to win in eight matches at one point.

The change was made to Kohfeldt in late October and after a month in charge, Wolfsburg are 3-1-1. Additionally, when comparing xG with xGA for those five matches, Wolfsburg were predicted to win four of those matches, which is a tell-tale sign their actual play is improving.

Nonetheless, their main man up top, Wout Weghorst, will have the pressure of making the difference against Borussia Dortmund. Weghorst has only scored four goals this year, despite a 6.2 xG mark. Unfortunately, in six games versus Borussia Dortmund, he has failed to score. Weghorst will be aided by Lukas Nmecha on his left, a player that has an xG of 0.58 per 90 minutes.

On Saturday, they will carry along a slight disadvantage as their starting goalkeeper, Koen Casteels remains sidelined with COVID-19.

The Impact of Missing Erling Haaland

As we switch gears back to Borussia Dortmund, it cannot be understated how much they miss Erling Haaland. His absence is the root of their problems right now, and without him, their performances have been grim. In fact, xG vs xGA predicted only one win in Borussia Dortmund’s last five matches. Aside from the three matches they already lost, this means they could have easily lost to FC Koln as well.

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga Statistics

Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Goals per game 2.50
1.58 Expected goals per game (xG) 1.97
1.17 Goals allowed per game 1.50
1.25 Expected goals allowed per game (xGA) 1.42
56.7% Possession % 60.3%
81.2% Passing Accuracy % 84.1%
12.6 Shots per game 14.6

Moreover, Haaland was on a great run of form as well. In just six matches for Borussia Dortmund this season he had a scintillating 6.1 expected goal tally. In reality, the Norweigan bagged nine goals, which is just a true display of the talent he possesses.

Now, Borussia Dortmund turns to Donyell Malen to take over that offensive production. Sadly, Malen’s form has not been great since signing this summer from PSV Eindhoven, only putting one goal next to his name.

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund H2H Results

Finally, despite the poor run of form BVB are on, the past results are heavily in their favor. Borussia Dortmund have won six in a row against Wolfsburg and have not lost in 12 matches, dating all the way back to 2015. What is even more dreadful in the fact that Wolfsburg have failed to score against Borussia Dortmund in five years.

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is Wolfsburg to cover the +0.5 spread with odds of +105. Despite their history, it looks like things are changing for the better at Wolfsburg and I favor their chances against a Haaland-less BVB

Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (+105)

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