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SpaceX Launch Odds – How Long for Crew Dragon to Dock International Space Station? Will an Astronaut Puke During Launch?

SpaceX spaceship
The SpaceX launch with NASA astronauts destined for the International Space Station is scheduled for Saturday afternoon. Photo by: NASA/SpaceX (Public Domain).
  • The SpaceX launch is slated for Saturday afternoon and several prop bets are available for wagering on the mission
  • When will the Crew Dragon capsule return to Earth? When will the spaceship dock with the International Space Station?
  • Analysis of the odds on all the props and predicted outcomes follow in the ensuing story

Weather permitting, the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch from Florida’s Cape Canaveral on Saturday at 3:22:45 pm EDT. The originally planned launch, designated for Wednesday, was scrubbed due to poor conditions.

This will be the first manned space flight launched from the USA in a decade, and it’s spawned a series of prop wagers covering different aspects of the mission.

NASA/SpaceX Props

Outcome Over Odds Under Odds Will Either Astronaut Vomit During Launch  Odds
Length of NASA national anthem Over 93 seconds (-120) Under 93 seconds (-120) Yes -10000
When will Crew Dragon capsule return to Earth? Over 2.5 months (-150) Under 2.5 months (+110) No +1400
When will Crew Dragon dock with International Space Station Over 19 hours (-135) Under 19 hours (-105)

Odds taken May 29

Both NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine and SpaceX founder Elon Musk indicated they would not hesitate to call off the launch if there were any safety concerns. There’s another window to launch on Sunday at 3:00:11 p.m.

US President Donald Trump indicated he would attend the launch. He’s anxious to eventually launch a mission to Mars as part of his planned Space Force.

Singing in the Rain

Americans love their patriotism almost as much as they do shooting off rockets. Naturally, combining the two was always going to happen.

Yes, the Star-Spangled Banner will be performed prior to launch. But no, this won’t be a Super Bowl-style “hey, look at me” type of national anthem.

NASA governs its launches by the tightest of schedules. Timing is accurate down to the second.

This will be more like the anthem at Super Bowl I – oddly enough, when two men dressed as astronauts shook hands at the 50-yard line. It will be quick and painless.

Pick: Under 93 seconds

SpaceX Go for Launch

The Falcon 9 rocket will make history. It’s going to be the first piloted launch into orbit of a privately owned and operated spacecraft.

The plan is to orbit Earth for 19 hours following launch. Then they will head toward the ISS.

The expectation is that astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley will stay at the space station for a maximum of a few months.

Due to its construction, the Crew Dragon can’t be in space for more than four months. The thin atmosphere in space will degrade the spaceship’s solar panels.

Pick: Over 2.5 months (-150)

Are We There Yet?

Last year, SpaceX successfully launched an unmanned rocket to the International Space Station. They’ve also docked with the station on previous cargo missions.

If the launch stays on schedule, docking should occur at 10:29 am EDT on Sunday, May 31st.

Doing the math, that’s approximately 19 hours and 5 minutes if all goes according to plan. But there’s bound to be at least one glitch.

Pick: Over 19 hours (-135)

Will They Blow Chunks?

Sure, the SpaceX spacesuits look like something they borrowed from Plan 9 From Outer Space. And yes, the astronauts are named Bob and Doug, which immediately conjures up visions of the McKenzie brothers.

Relax. This might be their first space flight but it isn’t the first rodeo for Behnken and Hurley. Both are NASA astronauts, the best of the best. They’ve been in training for this mission for four years. In fact, both are married to astronauts.

SpaceX isn’t sending Pauly Shore and Don Knotts into space. No one will be regurgitating their breakfast.

Pick: No (-10000)

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