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TCU vs Virginia CWS Odds & Picks (June 18)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in News

Updated Jun 17, 2023 · 8:17 PM PDT

Griff O'Ferrall slides home
Jun 16, 2023; Omaha, NE, USA; Virginia Cavaliers shortstop Griff O'Ferrall (6) scores a run against the Florida Gators during the seventh inning at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Virginia Cavaliers are -200 favorites over the TCU Horned Frogs at the College World Series
  • Both teams blew late leads in their opening games, setting up this win-or-go-home scenario
  • Don’t miss the TCU vs Virginia predictions and odds below

It’s the first win-or-go-home battle at the College World Series.

After each suffering tough opening-round defeats in this double-elimination portion of the tournament, the TCU Horned Frogs (42-23) will battle the Virginia Cavaliers (50-14) to keep their title hopes alive.

Oddsmakers are leaning towards the 7th-seeded Cavaliers to survive in this one.

Action gets underway Sunday (June 18) at 2pm ET from Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, NE. You can watch the game live on ESPN and ESPN+.

TCU vs Virginia Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
TCU Horned Frogs +165 +1.5 (-120) O 11.5 (-115)
Virginia Cavaliers -200 -1.5 (-110) U 11.5 (-115)

Virginia is the betting favorite against the unseeded Horned Frogs, at -200 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 66.67%. The total is set at 11.5.

The Cavaliers are currently tied for the third-best 2023 College World Series odds with Florida at +450, while the Horned Frogs are in the 6-spot, at +850.

The winner of this takes on the loser of Sunday’s other matchup: Florida vs Oral Roberts.

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TCU vs Virginia Probable Pitchers

Though its yet to be confirmed by TCU as of publishing time, the Horned Frogs are expected to start righty Sam Stoutenborough. The Cal transfer is a perfect 5-0 this campaign, with a 4.52 ERA.

It will be his 10th start of the year. After figuring in just one decision in his first 15 appearances on the season, he’s picked up wins in four of his last five outings.

Stoutenborough last pitched June 10, scattering five hits over 5.1 innings in a 6-4 win over Indiana State. He allowed three earned runs, walking one and striking out a pair.

He’s given up at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts, but TCU’s offense let him pitch free, as they piled up 32 runs of support in those contests.

Stoutenborough vs Early Stats

Sam Stoutenborough
VS
Connelly Early
5-0 Record 12-2
4.52 ERA 3.06
1.33 WHIP 1.17
3.44 SO/W Ratio 4.90

Virginia has confirmed their starter will be lefty Connelly Early. The junior put up a 12-2 mark across 17 starts for the Cavs, posting a 3.06 ERA.

He’s picked up a pair of victories in the NCAA Tournament so far, the latest in a 14-4 Super Regional win over the Duke Blue Devils. Early went seven strong, giving up nine hits and no earned runs. It was his longest outing of the season.

Prior to that, he tossed 6.1 innings in an 8-4 win over East Carolina, giving up seven hits and a pair of earned runs.

Expect Offense in Omaha

The teams can light up the scoreboard. Virginia is averaging 9.1 runs per game this season, and have a 40-3 mark on the year when tallying six or more runs.

They’re paced by a trio of standout bats. Anthony Stephan is hitting .348 with three home runs and eight RBI’s in the tournament so far.

Ethan Anderson is batting .381 with three dingers of his own and nine RBI in his last six, while Kyle Teel is raking, hitting at a .458 clip with a home run and nine RBI in the tournament.

TCU averaged eight runs per game in the regular season, and have bumped that up to 8.5 in the playoffs. They’re 29-10 when they cross the six-run threshold.

Cole Fontenelle has been lights out in the NCAA’s, hitting .529 with two homers and seven RBI. Kurtis Byrne is just as hot, hitting at a .412 clip with three home runs and six RBI, while Austin Davis has also went yard twice with seven RBI in the tournament.

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Horned Frogs vs Cavaliers Predictions

No matter how this one turns out, one team is going to go home thinking about the what-ifs after their opening CWS games, setting up this crucial second-game scenario.

The Cavaliers were a perfect 46-0 when leading after eight innings, and were up 5-3 going into the ninth against Florida, then gave up three runs in a 6-5 loss.

TCU had just broke a 2-2 tie with Oral Roberts with a 3-run eighth inning, only for their bullpen to collapse, surrendering four in the final inning to lose 6-5.

We’re targeting the total, but not how you think: TCU had been allowing 5.6 runs per game on the year, but they’re down to 3.3 in the postseason, and Virginia is down to 2.7, after giving up 4.4 in the regular season.

They’ll get close to the number, but expect the teams to hit the under in a high-stakes showdown.

Pick: UNDER 11.5 runs (-115)

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