Tennis Betting – Wawrinka Offers Value at Aussie Open

Heading into the 2016 ATP season, it’s the same old story at the top of the men’s game. There’s Novak Djokovic and there’s everyone else.

The Serbian won three majors in 2015 and made the finals in all four, becoming just the third man to do so. (Roger Federer and Rod Laver are the other two.) He started 2015 off with a bang, taking the Australian Open title over Andy Murray, and he’s heavily favored to do the same in 2016, sitting at 5/6 to win the title.

Murray is next at 4/1 and had a great Davis Cup season in 2015, leading Britain to its first title since 1936. But he didn’t win any majors last year and only made the final in Melbourne.

At 7/1, the almost-ageless Federer sits third in the odds. He showed last year that he can still play at the highest level, knocking off Djokovic at both the Cincinnati Masters and (the round-robin portion of) the Tour Finals. That said, he hasn’t beaten Novak in a five-set match since 2012, and he’ll have one more ring on his trunk in 2016.

Based on name power alone, Rafael Nadal is still coming in at 10/1. Due in part to injuries, “Rafa” was a “disasta” last season. He didn’t move past the quarters at any of the majors and was a combined 1-6 against Djokovic (0-4), Federer (0-1), and Murray (1-1).

Stan Wawrinka rounds out the top-five at 15/1. The late-blooming Swiss star has one Aussie Open title on his resume already (2014) and added a second major title at last year’s French Open.

Betting advice: You’re not going to get great value on Djokovic no matter where you look. He’s been too consistent for too long, and there’s no reason to expect a drop-off right now. But betting on anyone else to win the title looks a bit foolhardy.

Instead, find a book that’s offering a “reach the finals” prop and roll with Wawrinka if he’s on the opposite side of the draw as Djokovic. Now 30, Wawrinka is no spring chicken, but he’s played the best tennis of his career over the past couple seasons, especially on the big stage. With his window for majors likely closing, expect “Stan the Man” to come out motivated in 2016.

Odds to win the 2016 Australian Open:

Novak Djokovic: 5/6
Andy Murray: 4/1
Roger Federer: 7/1
Rafael Nadal: 10/1
Stan Wawrinka: 15/1
Kei Nishikori: 25/1
Milos Raonic: 45/1
Tomas Berdych: 50/1
Marin Cilic: 55/1
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 60/1

(Photo credit: Feuillverte (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)