- Davis Cup odds have France as a narrow favorite this weekend
- Will Croatia’s higher-ranked singles players be enough to produce an upset?
- Or will France’s home-court advantage prove decisive?
The Davis Cup Final starts this weekend in Lille, France. It features a fourth-seeded Croatian team that beat the USA, Kazakhstan, and Canada to reach the semifinals. They’ll square off against a French squad that beat Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands.
2018 Davis Cup Betting Odds
|Team||2018 Davis Cup Odds (11/21/2018)|
France the Home Favorite
France is hosting the final tie, as is their right as the #1 seed. The matches will be played on the indoor clay courts of the Stade Pierre Mauroy, in Lille.
Who will lift the #DavisCup ??
— Davis Cup (@DavisCup) November 19, 2018
Croatia has all the ingredients you look for in a longshot. Their two top singles players, Marin Cilic and Borna Coric, are both higher ranked than anyone on the French team. Even on clay, Cilic would be strongly favored against Lucas Pouille. Tennis Elo gives Cilic a 60% win probability in that match, and win he did in their only previous meeting. Borna Coric has a similar win probability against Chardy, although the Frenchman has won two of their previous three matches.
Altogether Tennis Elo would give Croatia a 35% chance of entering the doubles match up 2-0, and just a 12% chance of getting there at 0-2. That doesn’t take into account home court advantage, which could be considerable.
The tie will come down to which is more important: a talent advantage or home court.
The tie will come down to which is more important: a talent advantage or home court. Croatia certainly has the former, with one of the best players of this generation and one of the promising players of the next, but it’s hard to gauge how the crowd in Lille will influence the outcome.