- We’re down to the last four men at the Wimbledon Championships
- Former odds-on favorite Roger Federer lost in five sets to Kevin Anderson
- Analysis of the Wimbledon Semi-Final Odds
The last four! I assume I owe you all an apology, because I told you this tournament was boring and predictable and now there will definitely be a new Wimbledon finalist. That player will face either Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic, and likely be a strong underdog.
Here are the Wimbledon Semi-Final Odds, both outrights and for the two matches.
Wimbledon Championship Odds Tracker
As you can see, John Isner and Kevin Anderson were not expected to make it this far. They mess up the All Four graph so badly that we’ve included a sheet just for them. This is mostly owing to the wonky draw that put Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the same side, and also Kevin Anderson’s improbable defeat of Roger Federer in the quarterfinal.
John Isner’s defeat of Milos Raonic was impressive, certainly, but he was also the higher-ranked and higher-seeded player in that match, if not a strong favorite.
These odds also indicate that the winner of the Nadal/Djokovic match will be a strong favorite in the final. That makes sense: the two combine for five Wimbledon titles, and neither of their possible opponents in the final has ever made it even this far at SW19.
Wimbledon Semi-Final Odds
Odds from Bovada, as of 7/12/2018
|Kevin Anderson||+1.5 (-210)||EVEN|
|John Isner||-1.5 (+170)||-110|
John Isner is the slight favorite, and if you believe in Elo, should be a stronger one. It’s hard to bet against the guy who just achieved the impossible and made up a two-set deficit against Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but Isner is in total the more accomplished grass-court player.
I love the spread here, When there is a match this even, and with servers this strong, it is rarely decided in straight sets. Particularly not on grass.
|Novak Djokovic||-1.5 (+160)||-110|
|Rafael Nadal||+1.5 (-200)||-110|
Novak Djokovic is the favorite, at least in part because his run to the semi-final has been a little less taxing than Nadal’s. Where Novak cruised through most of his opposition, only dropping two sets thus far, Nadal just got done fighting his way back against Juan Martin del Potro. That said, he is a little more proven than Djokovic, who bettors should still handle with care.
Rafael Nadal plus the spread is a bet I’d feel comfortable taking just about anywhere. You don’t get great odds, but quick turnaround and a very likely return. Novak Djokovic dropped a set to Kyle Edmund on Saturday, so he’s not at all likely to sweep Nadal out of the final.