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ATP 2019 Indian Wells Masters Finals (BNP Paribas Open) Odds & Pick

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 19, 2020 · 10:22 PM PDT

Roger Federer
Roger Federer takes on Dominic Thiem in the Indian Wells Masters Men's Singles Finals. Photo by Tatiana (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem will square off in the ATP BNP Paribas Open final
  • Federer won his semifinal by default when Rafael Nadal was forced to pull out due to a knee injury
  • Thiem won a hard-fought, three-set semifinal over Canada’s Milos Raonic

Does Dominic Thiem stand any chance against a rested Roger Federer in Sunday’s ATP BNP Paribas Open final at Indian Wells?

Federer is the overwhelming favorite to win the match.

Thiem vs Federer (Indian Wells Finals) Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Dominic Thiem +280 +3.5 (EVEN) O 22 (-130)
Roger Federer -360 -3.5 (-130) U 22 (EVEN)

*Odds taken March 16

Start Time: Sun, Mar 17 at 6:30pm EST

Before the tournament started, Thiem was given +6600 odds, while Federer was listed at +550, the third-shortest odds.

Saturday, Federer won his semifinal by acclamation when Rafael Nadal was unable to answer the bell due to a knee injury. Thiem scratched and clawed his way to a 7-6(7-3), 6-7(3-7), 6-4 semifinal victory over Milos Raonic.

Nadal Forced to Withdraw

World No. 2 Nadal took his warm-up on Saturday and then released a statement saying that his knee would not permit him to play at a level required to compete in the match.

It would have been the 39th career match between Nadal, 32 and Federer, 37, the world’s No. 4-ranked player. They’ve gone without clashing on court since 2017. Federer has won their last five meetings dating back to 2014.

Nadal indicated that his knee began bothering him during the second set of his 7-6(7-2) 7-6(7-2) victory over Karen Khachanov in the quarter-finals on Friday.

The first time that Nadal and Federer ever faced each other in a pro tennis match was in doubles competition at Indian Wells in 2004.

Thiem Toughs It Out

Thiem also got a free ride through the quarterfinals when his oppoent Gael Monfils was forced to withdraw due to an Achilles tendon injury. He wasn’t so lucky in his semifinal against Raonic.

The two fought tooth and nail through the first two sets. A slight edge went to Thiem in the opening set. The slight advantage was gained by Raonic in the second set, when he recorded 10 of his 17 match aces.

It was 2-2 in the third set when Thiem broke Raonic’s service to win a marathon fifth game. Thiem never lost service the entire match. It was his first career victory in three tries against Raonic.

World No. 8 Thiem advances to his third career ATP Masters 1000 final and his first on a hard-court surface.

Federer Owns The BNP Paribas Open

To say this is Federer’s tournament might be a bit of an understatement. He’s won the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells five times. He’ll play in the final for the third year in a row and the fifth time in six years.


Federer most recently won the tournament in 2017. He took the title three years in a row from 2004-06.

Head to head, Thiem and Federer are 2-2. They met three times in 2016, with Federer winning the first match and Thiem taking the next two meetings.

Last year, Federer defeated Thiem quite handily 6-2, 6-3 in the round robin portion of the ATP Nitto tournament in London.

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Federer is 2-0 against Thiem on hard-court surfaces. Thiem has one win against Federer on grass and earned his other win over Federer on a clay court.

Thiem owns a .622 winning percentage (43-22), 11th-best in the ATP, and two titles over the past 52 weeks of competition. Federer has also won two titles in the past year of competition, but his .780 winning percentage (39-11) over than span rates him No. 4 overall on tour.

It’s difficult to see any outcome in this match other than a Federer victory.

Pick: Federer -360, -3.5, under 22

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