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2019 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells Masters) Odds & Picks

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic comes into the Indian Wells Masters as the heavy favorite. Photo by Tatiana (Flickr) [CC License].
  • The BNP Paribas Open takes place in California from March 7-17, 2019
  • Can Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer win a record sixth title?
  • Will we see a Federer vs Nadal semi-final? 

The BNP Paribas Open is an ATP 1000 event taking place at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in California from March 7th-17th.

This year’s tournament features nine of the world’s top ten men’s players. Each of the big three – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer – highlight the event.

Djokovic and Federer are eyeing a record sixth title at Indian Wells, with Djokovic entering as the heavy favorite.

2019 Indian Wells Masters Odds

Player Odds at Bovada
Novak Djokovic +120
Rafael Nadal +450
Roger Federer +550
Alexander Zverev +1200
Kei Nishikori +2800
Milos Raonic +3300
Nick Kyrgios +3300
Stefanos Tsitsipas +3300
Kevin Anderson +4000
Marin Cilic +4000
Stan Wawrinka +4000
Borna Coric +5000
Daniil Medvedev +5000
Gael Monfils +5000
Dominic Thiem +6600

*Odds taken 03/06/19; click on the link in the table above to see all options.

Djokovic, Nadal & Federer Have Dominated the Tournament

Seven of the past eight tournaments at Indian Wells have been won by either Djokovic, Nadal or Federer. The only year that wasn’t the case came last year when Argentine Juan Martin del Potro defeated Federer to win the title.

While Federer won in 2017, Djokovic was the reigning three-time champion from 2014-2016.

Djokovic, the 2019 Australian Open champion enters the Paribas Open as the tournament’s top seed.

He does face a potentially tricky matchup in the third round, should 33rd ranked Nick Kyrgios advance.

Kyrgios recently went on quite the run at the Mexican Open on his way to winning the title last week. His tournament included an upset over Nadal in the Round of 16, before a straight sets win over world no. 3 Alexander Zverev.

Kyrgios is also 2-0 lifetime against Djokovic, though both wins came back in 2017.

What could potentially await in the fourth round is a match against Rotterdam winner Gael Monfils or Argentina winner Marco Cecchinato.

The next highest ranked player in the first quarter is eighth ranked Dominic Thiem. Thiem reached the semis of the Argentina Open last month, before making a quick exit in round one from the Rio Open.

Should Thiem meet Djokovic in the quarter-finals, he’ll be confident in knowing he’s defeated the Serb in their past two matches.

Should he play Djokovic in the quarter-finals, he’ll be confident in knowing he’s defeated the Serb in their past two matches. However, he’s never won a head-to-head in a match played on hard courts.

Tsitsipas Joins Top Ten Club

The second quarter features the newly top-ten ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas has been on fire, having won the Marseille Open before traveling immediately to Dubai.

There, he went all the way to the finals of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships before running out of gas in the finals to Federer.

Outside of possibly being a little worn out, it’s hard to not consider Tsitsipas at odds of +3300 given his current form.

A fourth round match against world no. 6 Kevin Anderson could be in the cards. However, Anderson has been recovering from injury and hasn’t played since the Australian Open.

Zverev Brothers Could Square Off

The quarter also features world no. 3 Alexander Zverev, and younger brother Mischa. While the two just won the doubles competition in Acapulco, they could quickly be competing against one another in round two should Misha defeat Martin Klizan.

Prior to his finals loss in Mexico, Alexander Zverev reached the Round of 16 at the Australian Open where he was defeated in straight sets to Canadian Milos Raonic. A rematch could be in the cards, should both reach the fourth round.

Tsitsipas and Zverev (Alexander), could meet in the quarters, before a possible semis showdown with Djokovic.

Federer Also Seeking 6th Title

Another five-time winner at Indian Wells, Federer, headlines the third quarter of this Masters Series event. Federer last won in 2017 and is fresh off his 100th career ATP title in Dubai.

As a participant in the third quarter, his highest projected opponent into round four would be Fabio Fognini, whom he owns a 4-0 career record against.

Should Federer advance into the quarters, his opponent could be Kei Nishikori. While he was defeated 7-6(4), 6-3 by the world no. 7 last year, he had won each of their previous seven head-to-head matches.

Could We See a Federer/Nadal Semi-Final?

As the second seed in the tournament, Rafael Nadal could face a ranked opponent in Diego Schwartzman as soon as the third round. However, he owns a lifetime 6-0 record over the Argentine, which sets up for a potential fourth round match against world no. 15 Daniil Medvedev.

The two have never met previously and both are off to strong starts in 2019. Nadal with a finals loss to Djokovic at the Aussie Open and Medvedev winning a title in Sofia. He was bounced early in the Round of 16 at Rotterdam, though.

Where I see some great value is in American John Isner playing out of the top portion of quarter four. He’d be the higher ranked player up until the quarter-finals, and yes, that likely would come against Nadal.

But at odds of +10000, it leaves you plenty of room to hedge out if desired.

Isner was a finalist in the tournament in 2012 and has been playing well of late. The hard-serving 33-year-old has reached the semis in each of the New York, Delray Beach, and Mexican Opens.

Best Bets at Indian Wells

Djokovic is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now. But at +120, I think the better option may be to bet him in singles bets all the way to the final in a moneyline rollover strategy, adding your winnings from each round into subsequent bets.

Alternatively, Tsitsipas at +3300, in his current form has to be worth a bet if you’re looking for longer odds.

In the bottom half, odds of one of either Federer or Nadal not reaching the finals seems slim. A bet on both to win outright should allow for a little hedging in the final against Djokovic or turn out to be great value if Nole gets upset earlier.

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