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2019 ATP Dubai Finals Odds: Tsitsipas vs Federer

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Tennis

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 6:51 AM PDT

Roger Federer
Roger Federer is closing in on his 100th career title. Photo by Tatiana (flickr) [CC License].
  • Roger Federer and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the finals of the Dubai Open
  • Can Federer win his eighth Dubai Open title?
  • Or will Tsitsipas win his second title in less than a week?

Roger Federer looks to capture his 100th ATP Tour title at the Dubai Open on Saturday March 2nd, when the world no. 7 meets rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Federer is a heavy favorite over the young Greek star, however came out on the losing side of their last head-to-head matchup.

Roger Federer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Dubai Open Final Odds

Player Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Roger Federer -260 -235
Stefanos Tsitsipas +205 +205

*Odds taken on 03/01/19

Federer last won in Dubai in 2015, which was his seventh time winning at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Since the Australian Open, the 37-year-old has had a light schedule leading up to Dubai, having not played in a tournament since. The rest has proved worthwhile as he’s had a relatively straightforward path to the finals.

In fact, he’s actually been improving as the tournament wears on. Federer advanced through the first two rounds with three-set wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Fernando Verdasco.

In the quarter-finals, despite a close first set with Márton Fucsovics, he prevailed 7-6 (8-6) 6-4. He made quick work of world no. 13 Borna Ćorić in the semi-finals by winning 6-2 6-2. 

A win on Saturday would give Federer both eight titles in Dubai and also a 100th career ATP Tour title win.

When he faces Tsitsipas on Saturday, a win would give him both eight titles in Dubai and also a 100th career ATP Tour title win.

Two Titles in One Week for Tsitsipas?

While I saw a relatively easy path for Federer to reach the Dubai Open finals when the draw was made, I was unsure how much Tsitsipas would have left after claiming the title in Marseille only last Sunday. He won all four matches in France in straight sets.

Tsitsipas hasn’t dropped off though this week after the win, finding himself in the Dubai Open Finals after defeating the 23rd ranked Gael Monfils 4-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(4).

His path to the finals hasn’t been the most challenging though when you consider his opponents were: Matthew Ebden (47th), Egor Gerasimov (155th), and Hubert Hurkacz (77th) through the opening three rounds.

Tsitsipas has his sights on a top 10 placing in the ATP rankings after this tournament no matter the outcome on Saturday.

Federer vs Tsitsipas Statistical Comparison

7 ATP Ranking 11
99 ATP Titles 2
26 Aces 18
78.3 First Serve % Won 82
12 Break Pts Won 13
8 Double Faults 16

Will Federer Avenge Aussie Open Loss?

In their first head-to-head match earlier this year at the Hopman Cup, the Swiss great bested the 20-year-old in straight sets 7-6(5) 7-6(4). The closeness of the match was a sign of things to come. On the biggest stage of 2019 thus far at the Australian Open, Tsitsipas claimed an upset 6-7(11) 7-6(3) 7-5 7-6(5) win in the Round of 16.

For Saturday’s final, Tsitsipas wil be confident knowing he’s already gone toe-to-toe with Federer twice this year, having more than held his own on both occasions, while winning once.

The betting markets have quickly adjusted in the Greek’s favor. Tsitsipas’s odds have shortened from as long as +268 to as short as +205.

Had you bet Federer at the start of the tournament at odds of +175, now would be a decent opportunity to take a piece of Tsitsipas at the underdog price and lock in a small profit should you choose to do so.

Given how the youngster has played this year, I would not be shocked to see him pull out the win tomorrow. However, perhaps my prediction of him running out of gas was just slightly delayed. Tsitsipas has needed three sets to advance in three of his four matches in Dubai. This, despite a relatively soft path to the finals.

Though he defeated Monfils earlier today, he dropped the first set and had two extremely close sets afterwards that saw him need over three hours to advance. Compare that to Federer who eased past Ćorić in the semis.

Also add in the revenge factor with Tsitsipas being his last defeat, plus the opportunity to become the second man in the Open Era to win 100 singles titles, and I’ll bet a close match where Federer comes out on top.

Best Bets: Roger Federer to win 2-1 at +255. You could also play it safer with a bet on Over 2.5 Sets at +135.

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