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ATP Tour 2019 Dubai Open Odds & Picks

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Tennis

Feb 24, 2019 · 8:20 AM PST

Roger Federer looks for an eighth Dubai win
Seven-time Dubai champion Roger Federer is favored to win the 2019 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship. Photo by Tatiana (flickr) [CC License].
  • The ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship takes place in Dubai from February 25th to March 2nd.
  • Can tournament favorite Roger Federer win his eighth title in Dubai?
  • Will Roberto Bautista Agut defend his 2018 win?

This week’s ATP 500 event in Dubai welcomes eight of the world’s top 15 men’s tennis players, including three of the top 10. The Dubai Open is headlined by the world’s sixth and seventh top ranked players in Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer.

2019 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Odds

Player Odds
Roger Federer +175
Kei Nishikori +450
Milos Raonic +800
Daniil Medvedev +800
Marin Cilic +1000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1200
Borna Coric +1400
Roberto Bautista-Agut +1400
Gael Monfils +1600
Tomas Berdych +1600
Karen Khachanov +1800
Fernando Verdasco +5000
Marcos Baghdatis +6600
Mikhail Kukushkin +8000
Philipp Kohlschreiber +8000

*Odds taken 02/24/19

Top seed Nishikori begins the tournament with a match against 58th ranked Benoit Paire. Nishikori has won 5/7 matches with the Frenchman including each of the past three.

Should seedings hold true to form, a matchup with 12th ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas could be in the cards for the quarter-finals.

Nishikori would be the fresher of the two having last played in a semi-finals defeat on February 16th in Rotterdam. He’s 1-0 against the Greek youngster.

Outside of a Round of 32 exit in Rotterdam, Tsitsipas has run deep into every tournament this year having reached at least the quarter-finals four times in 2019. Earlier today he defeated Mikhail Kukushkin to claim the Open 13 title in Marseille, meaning I’m unsure how much either player will have left in the tank this week. Though at +8000 any sort of run by the Kazakhstani could look like a great bet a few days from now.

Marin Čilić Top Seed in Second Quarter

He may be the tournament’s third overall seed, but Marin Čilić has only four competitive matches to his name in 2019. He reached the Round of 16 in Australia, but withdrew from Rotterdam due to a knee injury.

He’ll face Gael Monfils in the first round, who most recently won a title in Rotterdam last Sunday.

The Frenchman has been dealing with an injury of his own having withdrawn from Marseille this past week with a wrist injury.

Too many questions here for me between these two, meaning looking to world number 15 Daniil Medvedev could be worth a bet. The Russian has played a strong 2019 and has been resting this past week after losing to Monfils in the semis of Rotterdam.

Can Agut Defend Title?

Quarter three features the winner from 2018 in Roberto Bautista Agut who defeated Lucas Pouille last year. Agut’s seen limited action since a quarter-finals loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Australian Open. He retired with illness from his match in Sofia in the quarter-finals and withdrew from Rotterdam.

Prior to Australia, he started the year on fire with impressive wins over Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka in Doha.

The top seeds in this quarter feature Karen Khachanov and Borna Coric. The heavy-hitting Khachanov has failed to impress in 2019 having yet to progress past the Round of 16 of any tournament. He most recently lost in the first round of Rotterdam and should he face Agut in round two of Dubai he’ll need to improve upon the straight sets defeat he suffered to the Spaniard at the Aussie Open.

Coric has also failed to advance past the Round of 16 this year.

At odds of +1600, Tomáš Berdych could be worth a bet from the bottom half of the bracket.

At odds of +1600, Tomáš Berdych could be worth a bet from the bottom half of the bracket. The Czech will face Aljaz Bedene who most recently retired from the semis of the Rio Open with a leg injury on Saturday. Should he reach the next round he’ll either face Coric who he owns a 3-0 career record against or Kukushkin (2-0), who he’s also yet to lose to.

Of course, even if Berdych reaches the semis, that would mean a likely matchup with Federer.

Can Federer Win Dubai for First Time Since 2015?

Federer returns to the court for the first time since his Round of 16 upset defeat at the Australian Open, also at the hands of Tsitsipas.

Canadian Milos Raonic is making his first trip to Dubai and looks to be Federer’s main competition in their quarter. His most recent action saw him lose in straight sets to Stan Wawrinka in the Round fo 16 in Rotterdam.

Outside of Raonic, the highest ranked player Federer will face in this quarter is the 33rd ranked Philipp Kohlschreiber whom he’ll meet in round one. It’s tough to not see a semi-finals or even finals appearance for Federer.

Dubai Duty Free Best Bets

Having won seven times in Dubai and being one of the freshest players in the tournament, a bet on Federer at +175 won’t return much, but can’t be disregarded. He has a record of 48-6 in Dubai and is eyeing his 100th career men’s title on the ATP tour.

Two-time finalist Berdych at +1600 certainly presents some great value for a player who’s shown success in the U.A.E.

If you want to avoid betting Federer or betting against him in the bottom half of the bracket, I’d look to Medvedev, whose price has already shortened from +1000 to +800 since the lines opened. The path looks open for him to reach the quarters against a player possibly dealing with an injury. Progression into the semis or finals could give you some room to hedge depending how other matches unfold.

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