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2019 French Open Men’s Singles Semifinals Odds: Federer vs Nadal & Djokovic vs Thiem

Dave F.

by Dave F. in Tennis

Jun 6, 2019 · 12:58 PM PDT

French Open courts
Rafa Nadal is looking to break his own record and win another French Open title. Photo by Sylvain WEBER (Wiki Commons).
  • The French Open semifinals take place Friday
  • Nadal vs Federer is attracting lots of attention
  • Is there more value handicapping Djokovic vs. Thiem?

If you were hoping for great drama in the French Open quarterfinals, our apologies. However, with the four favorites winning, the top four seeds are ready to duke it out in a star-studded semifinal round on Friday.

Though all-time greats Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will battle in the featured match, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem could be the more competitive competition. Rafael Nadal remains the clear favorite and now has average French Open odds of -190 to win another title.

Federer vs Nadal 2019 French Open Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total Odds
Roger Federer +7.0 (-105) +500 O 33.0 (-105)
Rafael Nadal -7.0 (-125) -700 U 33.0 (-125)

Odds taken 06/06/19.

Semifinal 1: Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal

These are the two biggest winners in the history of tennis. Federer has a record 20 major titles, and Nadal has claimed 17. Federer has eight championships at Wimbledon, which is second when it comes to dominance at a single major. Nadal’s 11 French Open titles are the most for any player at any major.

For all of his greatness, Federer has won at Roland-Garros just once, and recently has not even played the French Open. Facing Nadal is a part of the reason he is back in Paris this year.

Despite Federer being the most accomplished player of all-time, Rafa is 23-15 against Roger all-time, 9-3 in majors, and 5-0 at the French Open. In the five matches in Paris, Federer has won four total sets.

The Bet

The odds indicate Nadal has better than an 85% chance of winning. Both players have been terrific up until this point, but there just is no compelling reason to believe Roger will pull the upset. This is Nadal’s domain, he is younger, and more accomplished on clay.

Pick: Rafael Nadal (-750)

Djokovic vs Thiem French Open Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total Odds
Novak Djokovic -3.5 (-125) -210 O 39.5 (-105)
Dominic Thiem +3.5 (-105) +170 U 39.5 (-125)

Odds taken 06/06/19.

Semifinal 2: Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem

Like Roger and Rafa, Djokovic is an all-time great. His 15 major titles are third all-time. He captured the French Open in 2016, and has lost in the finals three times. Nole holds the Australian Open record with seven titles down under.

25-year-old Austrian Dominic Thiem is a clay court expert who lost to Nadal in the finals at the French Open last year in straight sets. Thiem did not face any top players enroute to the finals, but he never was pushed to five sets in getting there.

Thiem needed four sets against Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik and Pablo Cuevas this year, but has had an easy time in his last two matches, dispatching Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov in straight sets.

The Bet

Djokovic is 6-2 all time against Thiem and 3-2 on clay courts. This certainly is not Djokovic’s preferred surface, but aside from duels with Nadal, he usually prevails. Thiem should be very competitive, but at +165 he needs to win nearly 40% of the time in order to make that a worthwhile wager. Experience particularly in majors suggests we side with Nole.

Pick: Novak Djokovic (-210)

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