2021 French Open Men’s Singles Odds & Predictions to Win Every Quarter
By Dave Friedman in Tennis
Published:
- The French Open begins Sunday in Paris
- All-time greats Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are in the same quarter of the draw
- Where can we find betting value when breaking down each quarter of the bracket at Roland Garros?
A lot about last year’s French Open was weird. Rescheduled from May-June to September-October because of COVID-19, players contended with new balls, a roof for the first time over Philippe-Chatrier, and limited attendance. Of course as strange as the circumstances may have been, the result was the same. Rafael Nadal earned his 13th men’s singles title in Paris.
As it should be, Nadal is once again the favorite. Interestingly, fellow all-time greats Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are in the same quarter, and whoever comes out of that portion of the bracket would be slated for a semifinal date with Nadal. Regardless, it is always fun to dig deep at the draw and see where we can find value in picking semifinalists.
If you think Nadal is a shoo-in, there are still three other quarters to break down and consider wagering on. If you think Nadal is vulnerable, the prices are juicy.
2021 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #1
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | -250 |
| Matteo Berrettini | +650 |
| Roger Federer | +850 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | +900 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | +1400 |
| Taylor Fritz | +2000 |
| David Goffin | +3300 |
| Ugo Humbert | +4000 |
| Marin Cilic | +10000 |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | +10000 |
| Alex De Minaur | +10000 |
All odds as of May 28th at William Hill
Is Novak Djokovic Poised to Pass Nadal and Federer?
In a shocker to nobody, Djokovic won this year’s first major. In February he took his third straight Australian Open title and ninth overall. He has won 18 major titles, two shy of Nadal and Federer, and four clear of the next closest pursuer, Pete Sampras.
Djokovic has reached the French Open Final on five occasions but won just once. He has made the semifinals in eight of the last 10 years.
If not Djokovic, Federer is the marque name. Clay courts have never been his specialty. He didn’t come to Paris in four of the last five years, but he did make the semis in his one trip.
If you’re looking for an angle, after years coaching his nephew Rafa, Toni Nadal is now assisting Felix Auger-Aliassime.
2021 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #2
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | -500 |
| Andrey Rublev | +800 |
| Jannik Sinner | +1100 |
| Aslan Karatsev | +1100 |
| Diego Schwartzman | +1400 |
| Cameron Norrie | +5000 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | +6600 |
| Gael Monfils | +10000 |
| Richard Gasquet | +10000 |
| Fernando Verdasco | +12500 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | +12500 |
Who Drew the Short Straw Quarter 2?
If you are not going to be among the top four seeds, what you are looking for when the draw comes out is avoiding Rafa. Those in this quarter failed.
Nadal has won the French Open 13 times including four straight. Since 2005 he has missed the semis three times. Those are the only three times he didn’t hoist the trophy
Andrey Rublev has reached the quarters in each of the last three majors that he has played. The young Russian recently beat Nadal in Monte Carlo.
Diego Schwartzman made the semis in Paris last year. He won March’s Argentina Open in his hometown of Buenos Aires.
2021 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #3
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | +163 |
| Dominic Thiem | +175 |
| Casper Ruud | +650 |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | +850 |
| Fabio Fognini | +1400 |
| Kei Nishikori | +1400 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | +1400 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | +1600 |
| Karen Khachanov | +2000 |
| Daniel Evans | +4000 |
| Daniel Evans | +4000 |
| Federico Delbonis | +5000 |
| Gilles Simon | +12500 |
Is This the future?
Roger, Rafa, and Nole are not going to be around forever. Sure, we said that five years ago, but Federer is 39 years old and the other two champions are 34. This quarter may include the future.
After reaching the final of three majors, Dominic Thiem finally cashed in on try number four. He won the US Open last year.
Thiem’s last five trips to Roland Garros include five appearances in the quarters, four in the semis, and a couple runs to the final.
In New York Thiem beat Alexander Zverev in five sets. Zverev followed up his first major final with a quarterfinal run in this year’s Australian Open. Twice in the last three years, he has reached the quarters of the French Open.
Paris has been kind to Karen Khachanov. In 2019 he made the quarters, and he has been to at least the fourth round four straight years.
2021 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #4
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +100 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +700 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | +700 |
| Cristian Garin | +900 |
| Reilly Opelka | +900 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | +1000 |
| Alexander Bublik | +1000 |
| Jaume Munar | +1400 |
| John Isner | +3300 |
| Guido Pella | +8000 |
| Steve Johnson | +12500 |
Is Now the Time for Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev is seeded number two. Now he needs to prove it. He reached the semifinals of the US Open last year and fell to Djokovic in the Australian Open final this year.
Medvedev has had no luck in Paris. He has played the French Open four times and has yet to win a match. His all-time record on clay is 10-18, but there are signs he is improving on the red.
If drawing into Nadal’s quarter is the nightmare, slotting into Medvedev’s bracket is the dream. At absolute best he is vulnerable. Is that good news for Stefanos Tsitsipas? The 22-year-old made the semis last year and got to the same point at the Aussie Open this year.
Pablo Carreno Busta has reached the semis at the French Open twice. The Spaniard has won more than two-thirds of his career clay court matches.
Cristian Garín won the 2013 Junior French Open and beat Zverev to capture the title.
Sports Writer
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
