- Carlos Alcaraz is favored to win this year’s French Open which begins on Sunday (May 28th)
- Novak Djokovic sports the second shortest odds, but has struggled on clay this season
- Check out the 2023 French Open odds and picks below, plus a matchup bet to target on Day 1
Rafael Nadal and the French Open odds favorite are synonymous with one another. No player has ever dominated a tournament like Nadal has at Roland Garros, winning an unprecedented 14 times.
Fortunately for this year’s field, they won’t have to deal with the clay court legend. Nadal will miss the event with a hip flexor injury marking the first time since 2004 a French Open has been contested without him.
His absence has opened the door for another Spanish superstar to take his place atop the oddsboard, as World Number 1 Carlos Alcaraz opened as the betting favorite.
2023 French Open Odds
|Tomas Martin Etcheverry||+10000|
|Juan Pablo Varillas||+10000|
Alcaraz currently boasts a +160 price tag in the French Open odds, just ahead of Novak Djokovic. The 20-year-old captured his ever Grand Slam at last year’s US Open, but was forced to pull out of this year’s Australian Open due to a hamstring injury.
Top of the Board
Since returning from injury, Alcaraz has been on a tear. He made three consecutive finals out of the gate, winning in Argentina and at Indian Wells. He started off the clay court season with back-to-back titles in Barcelona and Madrid, dropping just two sets along the way.
He bowed out in the Round of 32 in Rome last week, but an 11-1 clay court record this season is pretty tough to beat. Alcaraz will be the number one seed at a Grand Slam for the first time ever at Roland Garros and it’s hard to make an argument against him.
— Sportskeeda Tennis (@SK__Tennis) May 25, 2023
If you can’t stomach his +160 price tag and are desperate to find a reason to fade him consider the following. He’s never made it past the quarters at the French Open and his side of the draw includes the 22-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic, who he could potentially face in the semis.
Speaking of Djokovic, he’s actually off to a rather uninspiring 5-3 start to his clay court season. Of course, you can never count out the man who’s tied for the most Grand Slam titles all-time, but his variety of injuries this season make him an easy fade at +260.
Don’t Sleep on Medvedev
As for potential challengers to Alcaraz that should be considered, Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune are at the top of the list. Both are on the opposite side of the draw and each man enters in fine form.
Rune has made three clay court finals in four events this season, most recently losing to Medvedev in Rome. Medvedev is actually the preferred choice of the two, as he sports longer odds (+1100 vs +900) despite being a higher seed (2 vs 6).
Daniil Medvedev in 2021: 'If you like to be in the dirt like a dog, I don't judge'
Daniil Medvedev in 2023: pic.twitter.com/TEse7HZUNc
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) May 21, 2023
The Russian has never been too fond of clay, but his game on that surface is coming around. He’s 10-2 so far on clay this season, and his most difficult opponent leading into the semis would be the 8th seed Jannik Sinner.
Pick: Daniil Medvedev to Win (+1100)
French Open Day 1 Picks
Shifting gears to Sunday now, where there’s a plus money matchup pick to target on Day 1. Argentina’s Pedro Cachin is a +130 underdog to Dominic Thiem, despite being ranked 33 spots higher than him in the world rankings.
Thiem’s rapid decline has been well documented, as he’s gone from number three to 96 in the world in less than three years. He captured the US Open title in 2020, but these days can be found playing primarily lower level ATP 250 events and on the Challenger Tour.
Dominic Thiem vs Pedro Cachin Odds
Even against seemingly inferior competition, Thiem is struggling. He’s 7-12 in ATP events this season and just lost in the second round of a Challenger Tour tournament in Bordeaux.
Cachin meanwhile, made the Round of 16 in Madrid last month, knocking off a pair of top-30 players along the way. He’s also made at least the quarters in three of his five Challenger Tour tournaments this year on Clay, and has been grinding on that surface nearly every week since late March.
Pick: Pedro Cachin Over Dominic Thiem (+130)