Alcaraz vs Fritz Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines (Nov 11)

• Carlos Alcaraz is a -421 favorite over Taylor Fritz on Day 3 of the ATP Finals
• Alcaraz is 4-1 all-time versus the American
• See my Alcaraz vs Fritz predictions and picks, plus the latest betting lines

When it comes to men’s tennis, it’s a two man show. Carlos Alcaraz and Janik Sinner have dominated the competition all year, and are on a collision course to meet in the championship match of the ATP Finals.

First, they’ll have to win a few more matches before their inevitable showdown, and Alcaraz will take the court Tuesday as a huge favorite over Taylor Fritz.

The action is set to get underway at 8 am ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.

Alcaraz vs Fritz Picks and Predictions

• Over 21.5 Games (-135 at DraftKings)

Believe it or not, Alcaraz has never won the ATP Finals. Along with the Australian Open, it’s virtually the only event he plays annually where he’s never lifted the title. He’s on a mission to change that this week, and got off to a strong start by dispatching Alex de Minaur in straight sets.

But there’s more than just a trophy on the line this week for Alcaraz. He can claim the world number one ranking to end the year by either winning all of his round robin matches, or reaching the final.

He enters the week with eight titles on his 2025 resume, to go along with a 67-8 record. Those wins include two majors, Roland Garros and the US Open, as well as three 1000 series events. Sinner won the season’s other two majors, and going back to the start of 2024, Sinner and Alcaraz have accounted for every Grand Slam victory on the men’s side.

Indoor hardcourt has never been Alcaraz’s specialty, which explains his lack of success at this event. However, he has improved greatly on the surface winning in Tokyo at the end of September. Coincidentally, Alcaraz beat Fritz in the final of that tournament, but the match was a lot closer than the 6-4, 6-4 final result.

Sandwiched in between his Tokyo title, were uninspiring results on hard courts in Paris and the Laver Cup. He fell to Cameron Norrie in his opening match in Paris, while Fritz upset him at the Laver Cup in the round robin.

That should give bettors confidence that Fritz can hang tough. Indoor hardcourt is his best surface, as the blazing fast court extenuates his greatest attribute which is his serve.

Fritz had that weapon going early and often on Monday in his straight sets win over Lorenzo Musetti. The American hardly broke a sweat against the Italian, and should be well rested after not having too many deep runs recently.

Alcaraz vs Fritz Last 5 H2H Results

In addition to his win over Alcaraz at the Laver Cup and his hard fought loss in Tokyo, Fritz also took a set off the Spaniard at Wimbledon. Grass plays eerily similar to indoor hardcourt, which is why Fritz’s career winning percentage is nearly as high on that surface as it is on hardcourts.

Fritz can easily take a set off Alcaraz, and at the very worst push him to tiebreakers in the first or second set. Only three players have played more tiebreakers than Fritz this season, while the American has the fifth highest service rating on Tour.

Ultimately, Alcaraz likely prevails and keeps his push towards the number one ranking alive. It won’t be easy though, which is why I’m taking over 21.5 games as my Alcaraz vs Fritz pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Odds

The best sportsbook to bet over 21.5 games is DraftKings, as most other shops have moved the line to 22.5 as of Monday night.

Moneyline wise, Alcaraz checks in as a -421 favorite, and is laying 3.5 games on the spread. Fritz comes back as a +329 underdog, and it’s worth noting the opening odds were much longer, meaning money is coming in on the American.

Odds as of November 10. Get in on the action betting the ATP Finals with the DraftKings promo code.