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Alcaraz vs Djokovic and Gauff vs Muchova Odds & Predictions – Western & Southern Open Finals

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in Tennis

Updated Aug 21, 2023 · 12:22 PM PDT

Novak Djokovic fist pump
Aug 18, 2023; Mason, OH, USA; Novak Djokovic (SRB) celebrates the victory over Taylor Fritz (USA) during the Western and Southern Open tennis tournament at Lindner Family Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s a Wimbledon Final rematch when Carlos Alcaraz battles Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati
  • On the women’s side, it’s Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova, each seeking their first Masters 1000 title
  • See the Western & Southern Open men’s and women’s final odds, predictions, and best bets below

It’s the tennis rivalry of the summer — and perhaps a preview of what’s to come for next week’s US Open.

Top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz battles 2-seed Novak Djokovic in the final of the Western & Southern Open on Sunday (Aug 20) in Cincinnati at 4:30pm ET. We’re just two tournaments removed from an epic Wimbledon Final, where Alcaraz won his second career major title over the most decorated men’s champ in history.

Speaking of breakthroughs, the women’s semifinal was pandemonium, with the top two seeds bounced, leaving Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova still standing, and one about to add a first Masters 1000-level tourney title to their resume when they take centre court at 1:30pm ET.

Let’s break down championship Sunday in Cincinnati, starting with the the men’s final.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz +136 +2.5 (-118) Over 22.5 (-112)
[2] Novak Djokovic -160 -2.5 (-112) Under 22.5 (-118)

The final has the veteran Djokovic as a -160 favorite over the top-ranked Alcaraz,  an implied win probability of 61.54%.

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Alcaraz vs Djokovic Betting Analysis

It’s been a tale of two paths for the men’s top two seeds.

Djokovic needed to put in a little bit of work in the semis, besting Russian Alexander Zverev 7-6 (5), 7-5 to advance to the tourney final as he seeks his third career title in Cincinnati, though he’s yet to drop a set in Cincinnati.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been in scramble mode all tournament, going the full three sets in each of his four matches at the Western & Southern Open.

He had to fight off a match point in the semis against Hubert Hurkacz, before closing out strong in a 2-6, 7-6 (4), 6-3 win. He’s been on the court for more than 10.5 hours heading into the final. Conversely, Djokovic has been on court for less than five hours.

Alcaraz has won two of the three head-to-heads, but this will be the first matchup on hard courts. Alcaraz won on grass at Wimbledon in a match that went the distance.

Djokovic got the win at Roland Garros this year in four sets, while Alcaraz won in Madrid in a match that went the full three sets, with two tiebreakers.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Stats

Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Novak Djokovic
1 ATP Ranking 2
12 ATP Titles 94
53-5 W-L (2023) 36-5
2-1 Head-to-Head Record 1-2

It’s hard to bet against the Serbian legend, as Djokovic will be making his record 57th Masters-level tournament final, looking to add to his record 38 tourney wins.

But Alcaraz is resilient, and even if he’s not playing his best, seeing this opponent across the net should bring out the best in him, and a match that should go the distance.

Pick: OVER 22.5 games (-112)

Gauff vs Muchova Betting Analysis

It was a double-breakout party on the women’s side.

American Gauff played dragon slayer on her side of the bracket, knocking out world no. 1 Iga Swiatek in a three-set marathon, 7-6 (2), 3-6, 6-4.

Meanwhile, Muchova also went three sets to bounce 2-seed Aryna Sabalenka to advance to the tournament final, 6-7 (4), 6-3, 6-2.

Oddsmakers are tagging Gauff as -194 favorite to win her third singles title this season and second in her last three outings.

Gauff vs Muchova Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
[7] Coco Gauff -194 -3.5 (-110) Over 22.5 (-106)
Karolina Muchova +164 +3.5 (-122) Under 22.5 (-126)

Entering the match, Gauff was 0-7 all-time and had never won a set against Swiatek, who has three of the last six women’s Grand Slam titles, while also holding down the top ranking for 72 straight weeks.

They last met in the French Open, with the Polish star stopping her in straight sets. But Gauff built off a big first-set win that went to a tiebreaker. It was the first time she’d even gotten to four games in a set against Swiatek since their first meeting at the 2021 Italian Open.

She’s been dominant in Cincinnati, having dropped just one set in the tournament. She’s trying to become the first teen to win the Western & Southern Open since 17-year-old Linda Tuero in 1968.

For the Czech Republic’s Muchova, the path was similar to her run at the French Open, when she knocked Sabalenka out in three sets, only to lose to Swiatek in the Slam Final.

After dropping a first-set tiebreak, Muchova dropped five games the rest of the way vs Sabalenka en route to victory. She’ll be seeking her first title since winning at Seoul in 2019.

Gauff vs Muchova Stats

Coco Gauff
VS
Karolina Muchova
7 ATP Ranking 17
4 ATP Titles 1
36-13 W-L (2023) 33-11
0-0 Head-to-Head Record 0-0

It will be the first meeting between these two, and they’ve each had a strong hardcourt season. Gauff is 25-6 while Muchova is 23-7.

Muchova has had the harder path, as Gauff will be the fourth top-12 player she will have faced. Look for the American to finish off this signature run.

Pick: Gauff (-194)

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