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Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Finals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

May 8, 2021 · 5:37 PM PDT

Alexander Zverev serving during a tennis match on clay court.
Germany's Alexander Zverev serves to Austria's Dominic Thiem during their semi-final match at the Mutua Madrid Open tennis tournament in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, May 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
  • Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini will go head-to-head for the fourth time in their career at the Madrid Open Finals
  • Zverev has yet to drop a set at the tournament this week
  • Continue below for the odds and our best bet prediction for this final match

Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini are all set to take on each other in the 2021 Madrid Open Final on Sunday, May 8th. The match is set to start at 12:30 PM ET.

Zverev enters the match as the favorite. The German has taken down the likes of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem in his previous two matches. Berrettini has also had a strong tournament this week and has only dropped one set.

Take a look at the odds below and how each player made his way to the finals here in Madrid.

Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini Madrid Open Final Odds

Player Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
[5] Alexander Zverev -2.5 (-117) -195 Ov 22.5 (-124)
[8] Matteo Berrettini +2.5 (-108) +155 Ov 22.5 (-103)

Odds as of May 8th.

Zverev is Unstoppable in Madrid

The 24-year old German has yet to drop a set over the course of four matches here in Madrid. In possibly one of the biggest wins of his career, Zverev defeated Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the quarterfinals, winning 6-4, 6-4. He is coming off a 6-3, 6-4 win over Dominic Thiem in the semis that earned him his spot in the finals.

In his semifinal match, Zverev recorded six aces and landed 66 percent of his first serves. When landing his first serve he managed a 78 win percentage. These aren’t necessarily overwhelming numbers, but compared to his opponent only landing 53 percent of his first serves with a 62 win percentage, it was enough to win him the match.

Zverev now looks towards his second Madrid finals appearance, and will attempt to win the title for the second time without dropping a set all tournament.

Berrettini’s Maiden Masters 1000 Final

The Italian enter the tournament coming off a title win in Serbia where he defeated Aslan Karatsev, and he’s been able to carry his momentum into Madrid. The 24-year is currently on an eight match win streak, where he’s only dropped three sets. Berrettini went on to defeat Casper Ruud in the semifinals 6-4, 6-4, to earn a spot in the Madrid Open final.

In his semifinal match, Berrettini became the first player all week to break Casper Ruud, who’s serve was exceptional in Madrid. He truely outplayed his opponent, and never really gave him an opportunity gain any momentum whatsoever.

As he enters the finals, Berrettini will look to win his first Masters 1000 title.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two players have seen each other three times before with Zverev holding the 2-1 edge. Their last meeting came in 2019 in Shanghai where Zverev won 6-3, 6-4. Two of their three previous meetings happened at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome on clay, where both players have won a match.

Zverev vs Berrettini Head-to-Head Stats


6 ATP Ranking 10
24 Age 25
14 Career Titles 4
262/132 Career W/L 83/54
1 YTD Titles 1
11/7 YTD W/L 12/3
2 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Both Zverev and Berrettini’s year to date looks similar, numbers wise. They’ve both captured a title, but Berrettini holds a better record on the year.

Zverev has been basically unstoppable this tournament, but Berrettini has shown consistency with his eight game win streak. But because of Zverev’s two big back-to-back wins here in the quarters and semi, I’m going to give him the slight edge, and expect that he takes home the trophy tomorrow. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Berrettini takes a set.

This is bound to be a close match, that is sure to be exciting to watch.

The Pick: Zverev (-195) OR Zverev 2-1 (+295)

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