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ATP Finals Group Stage Odds & Picks: Nadal vs Tsitsipas & Medvedev vs Zverev

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 11:30 AM PDT

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to drop a set in his debut at the ATP Finals. Photo by JC [Wikimedia Commons].
  • The final day of group matches at the Nitto ATP Finals will take place Friday November 15th
  • In his debut, Stefanos Tsitsipas has dominated in his group
  • The result of these matches will dictate who will advance to the semifinals

The Nitto ATP Finals are wrapping up the group stage with Nadel vs. Tsitsipas and Medvedev vs. Zverev. This group has had expected outcomes and very surprising matches. It’s hard to determine who all will be competing in the semifinals this year, but newcomer Stefanos Tsitsipas has left his mark on this tournament. In his first year competing, he’s undefeated going into his match against Nadal, and has yet to drop a set.

Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Rafael Nadal -2.5 (-120) -180 Over 23.0 (EVEN)
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 (-110) +135 Under 23.0 (-130)

All odds taken Nov. 14, 2019

Last year, Stefanos Tsitsipas was competing in the ATP Next Gen Finals tournament, where he won. But this year he’s paving his own way through the ATP Finals, beating Alexander Zverev, the defending champion, in straight sets. He’s now set to face Rafael Nadal, who’s coming off an incredible come from behind win, going down 5-1 in the deciding set.

Nadal is looking to maintain his No. 1 ranking as we come to an end of the year. But in reality, that could have been taken away from him had he lost Wednesday.

Not only must he beat Tsitsipas in this match in order to advance to the semi, but he also needs Medvedev to beat Zverev. As the favorite at -180 odds, the Spaniard is expected to win, but Tsitsipas still has an upper hand in my opinion.

Best Bet

There’s not many matches that you would bet against Rafael Nadal in, but again, in this particular match, despite what the odds say, Tsitsipas is the best bet. As stated earlier, the young Greek phenom has gone undefeated so far this tournament and has yet to drop a set. He’s the only one in his group that has yet to lose, making him the only guarantee for the semifinals in his group so far.

Tsitsipas currently has a losing record against Nadal, but managed to beat him on clay earlier this year in front of a home crowd for Nadal. To top it off, if the 21-year-old is able to take this match from Nadal, he also takes away his chance to advance to the semifinals.

Best Bet: Stefanos Tsitsipas +135 in three sets

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Daniil Medvedev 0.0 (-120) EVEN Over 24.0 (-110)
Alexander Zverev 0.0 (-110) -125 Under 24.0 (-120)

Daniil Medvedev is coming off an extremely difficult loss to Rafael Nadal on Wednesday. There was no reason why Nadal should’ve been able to come back in the match. The only way for Medvedev to reach the semifinals is if he is able to beat Alexander Zverev in straight sets, and have Nadal lose in straight sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

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Zverev, on the other hand, is in excellent tennis form. In his opening match he managed to defeat Nadal, and unfortunately lost in his match against Tsitsipas, where he was clearly just outplayed and outworked by the Greek.

Best Bet

Medvedev has played the most matches on tour this year, which could lead to the obvious exhaustion that has been shown, especially towards the end of his loss against Nadal. Medvedev still has the possibility of advancing if he beats Zverev in straight sets. But Zverev is the favorite to the win the match with -125 odds, and despite coming off a loss as well, it wasn’t as bad of one.

There is still an opportunity that neither one of these players makes the semifinals. The only way that would happen would be if Medvedev beats Zverev and Nadal beats Tsitsipas. Either way this will be a good match, but I think Medvedev has exhausted himself and Zverev will come out on top.

Best Bet: Alexander Zverev -125 in three sets

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