ATP Hamburg European Open Final Odds & Pick: Rublev vs Basilashvili

*Odds taken July 27, 2019

Nikoloz Basilashvili’s odds entering the tournament on July 21st were +2000, and the Russian Andrey Rublev didn’t seem to be on many people’s radar before the tournament started. But since the first day, both players have played some of the best tennis of their careers.

Not an Easy Ride

For the reigning champ, it hasn’t been that smooth of a tournament despite reaching the finals once again. Basilashvili had to save two match points to get past second seed Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. The Georgia born player’s 2019 results haven’t really reflected his playing this year at all. Coming into this week, his win-loss record was 15-16, which is not much to talk about.

In the game Nikoloz hits a forehand winner and put away a shot at the net to rally to win the game on his serve. He then broke Zverev’s serve to help force the tiebreak. With the win against world No. 5 Zverev, Nikoloz earned his second top 5 win of his career, and booked his third ATP Final of his career.

New Champion?

Andrey Rublev defeated tournament favorite Dominic Thiem in straight sets in the quarters on Friday, and going into the finals tomorrow, he’s favored to win the tournament at -130 odds over defending champion Nikoloz Basilashvili.

What a week this is becoming for ?? @AndreyRublev97

The Russian will play Basilashvili for the #HamburgOpen ?

?: @TennisTV | @hamburgopen pic.twitter.com/aqJgHTjX3n

— ATP Tour (@atptour) July 27, 2019

Going into the week, the Russian only had one quarterfinal showing this season.

“It’s my first ATP 500 final. Of course, I’d like to win and will try my best, but it’s been an amazing week for me.”

Like his final’s opponent, Rublev had to make a comeback in his semifinals matchup after going down 4-6, 2-4, to eventually take down Pablo Careeno-Busta 6-4, 7-5, 6-1, to head to his first ATP 500 level final. It’s his first final since 2018 Doha. After trailing, Rublev ended up winning the final 11 out of 13 games in the match.

Head-to-Head

The two men have only ever played each other once before at the ATP Doha Draw round of 16 in the first week of January, where Basilashvili won 6-3, 6-4. Both players play a similar type of game, and neither player has an overwhelming amount of later round experience, so there’s really not a whole lot to go off of.

Obviously Basilashvili has the years over Rublev who are aged 27 and 21 respectively, which has resulted in less “rookie mistakes” for him.

Where Do You Put Your Money?

Neither player has had an easy route to the finals, but it can be argued that Rublev has had a slightly more difficult route having to beat top seed Thiem to get here. But at the same time, Basilashvili shouldn’t be underestimated at the Hamburg European Open, with him almost having a home court advantage feel. He has a 11-match undefeated record at Hamburg dating back to last year.

It will be an interesting final regardless with both players having a similar style of play. Both play with added aggression from the back of the court, and with that comes unforced errors and plenty of winning shots and put aways. And based on how equally matched these two are, the finals will most likely be determined by only a couple points.

Pick: Rublev -130