2019 ATP Hamburg European Open Odds & Picks: Thiem Favored In Clay Event

• The Hamburg European Open will take place from July 22-28
• Nikoloz Basilashvili is the defending champion at this event
• Dominic Thiem, Alex Zverev, Fabio Fognini and Basilashvili are all in the field

The ATP Tour shifts to Hamburg, Germany this week for the Hamburg European Open. It’s not exactly a star-studded field as there is no Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal in the fold. However, guys like Dominic Thiem and Alex Zverev will compete. Let’s take a closer look to see who is the best bet at this event.

2019 Hamburg European Open Odds

*Odds taken July 21, 2019

Lots of Surprise Winners Recently

Taking a look at this tournament’s recent history, it’s been rare for a big name to win this event. Nikoloz Basilashvili won it last year, Leo Mayer in 2017, Martin Klizan in 2016, Nadal in 2015, Mayer again in 2014, Fabio Fognini in 2013 and Juan Monaco in 2012. Outside of Nadal, these are not household names.

So when you’re handicapping this event, keep in mind that it’s fairly wide-open.

This Is a Clay Court Event

It’s important to keep in mind that this is a clay court tennis tournament. Yes, we’re technically through the clay court part of the season and we’ve finished the grass events too. However, we are back on clay for this event, which is why you see the likes of Thiem, Zverev, Fognini and other clay-court specialists competing.

Thiem Is a Good Bet

It’s not surprising to see Thiem at the top of the board as he is one of the best young clay-court specialists out there. He made it all the way to the final at the French Open, knocking off three seeded players – including No. 1 Novak Djokovic along the way.

You can see how important the surface is to him as Thiem lost in the first round at Wimbledon. He was just 1-2 on grass last year and is just 5-6 on the surface over the last three years. He was also just 13-6 on the hard courts last year and 16-13 in 2017.

However, on clay, Thiem was 20-7 last year and 22-5 in 2017. He’s 18-4 on the clay courts this season, including a tournament title in Barcelona. From the players on the board, he’s the best overall bet.

Pass on Zverev

Of course, Zverev will be a popular option because the crowd will be behind the German. Clay is also his surface of choice – he was 16-2 on it last year – but he simply hasn’t been that crisp on it in 2019. Zverev did get to the quarters at the French Open and he did win in Geneva, so he enters having won eight of his last nine on clay.

At the same time, he played no one in Geneva and he struggled on clay prior to that. He was just 5-6 on the red surface this season. On top of that, he’s just 2-5 in his head-to-head matchups with Thiem, so that’s not a good sign if they end up meeting. I’ll pass on him in this spot.