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ATP Japan Open Semifinals Odds & Pick: Reilly Opelka vs John Millman

Martha Kruk

by Martha Kruk in Tennis

Updated Oct 4, 2019 · 4:22 PM PDT

Reilly Opelka hitting a backhand
Reilly Opelka is a slight favorite over John Millman in the semifinals of the 2019 Japan Open. Photo by Photo by Keith Allison (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • Reilly Opelka is slightly favored to beat John Millman in the 2019 Japan Open semifinals
  • Millman and Opelka have never faced each other
  • Who’s the best bet?

American Reilly Opelka and Australian John Millman will square off in the semifinals of the Rakuten Japan Open on Saturday, October 5th (12:00 AM ET).

Both players had easy quarterfinal matches with Opelka beating Japanese qualifier Yasutaka Uchiyama, 6-3, 6-3, and Millman then eliminating the final Japanese player left in the field, Taro Daniel, 6-4, 6-0.

John Millman vs. Reilly Opelka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Millman +1.5 (-118) +109 +23.5 (-128)
Opelka -1.5 (-102) -129 -23.5 (+108)

Neither player was considered a threat to win the title in the pre-tournament Japan Open odds. Indeed, both were underdogs in the first round.

Opelka’s Path to Semifinals

Opelka ended the dream run of Japan’s Yasutaka Uchiyama, defeating the qualifier in one hour and 18 minutes. The 6’11 giant served 16 aces in the match and the decisive breakthrough came at 3-3 in the second set when he broke Uchiyama with an approach-shot winner to gain an advantage he would not relinquish.

Earlier in the week, Opelka beat American Taylor Fritz, the #7 seed, in the first round, 6-3, 6-4. He then eliminated France’s Gilles Simon, 7-6, 7-6, in the second round.

This will be the 22 year-old’s first trip to the semi-finals of an ATP 500 event.

Millman’s Path to Semifinals

Millman saved three match points to avoid losing against American Bradley Klahn in the first round of qualifying. Now the 30-year-old is in his first ATP Tour semifinal since Budapest last April.

In his quarterfinal match, Millman broke Daniel’s serve six times, winning 56% of his return points and ending the match in a tight one hour and 19 minutes.

Millman started his tournament by besting Adrian Mannarino of France, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. He then beat another event qualifier, South Africa’s Lloyd Harris, 6-3, 6-2, in the second round.

Opelka vs Millman Head-to-Head

Opelka and Millman have never met before. Opelka is currently ranked no. 53 in the world while Millman is no. 80.


33-20 2019 Record 28-27
1 2019 Singles Titles 0
18-10 2019 Hardcourt Record 17-15

Who’s the Best Bet?

Opelka seems to be coming into his own as a major force in American tennis and already has a victory this year on the ATP Tour (New York Open in February). His record on hardcourts is far superior to Millman (18-10 vs 17-15).

Although Millman is the more experienced player and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 33 in October 2018, Opelka should be able to dominate with his powerful serve.

Pick: Opelka (-129)

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