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ATP Japan Open Semifinals Odds & Pick: Novak Djokovic vs David Goffin

Martha Kruk

by Martha Kruk in Tennis

Updated Apr 10, 2020 · 1:26 PM PDT

Novak Djokovic hitting a forehand
Novak Djokovic is a massive -600 favorite against David Goffin in the Japan Open semifinals. Photo by Edwin Martinez (creative commons).
  • Novak Djokovic faces David Goffin in the semifinals of the Japan Open as a -600 favorite
  • Goffin hasn’t won a tournament since triumphing in Tokyo two years ago
  • Who’s the best bet at the current, lopsided odds?

No. 3 seed David Goffin will take on World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the second semi-final match at the Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships on Saturday (October 5th, 2:00 AM ET).

Both players were in fine form in the quarterfinals, disposing of their opponents in straight sets and in less than an hour. But oddsmakers aren’t taking Goffin’s strong showing as an indication that he can hang with the top player in the sport.

Djokovic vs. Goffin Japan Open Odds

Player Spread Odds Total
Djokovic -4.5 (-110) -600 O 21.5 (-110)
Goffin +4.5 (-110) +495 U 21.5  (-110)

Odds as of 04/10/19.

David Goffin

Belgium’s David Goffin is through to his fifth semi-final of the season, ousting South Korea’s Hyeon Chung 6-2, 6-2 in the quarters. Although it was smooth sailing in the quarterfinal, Goffin had a challenging first-round match against Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta, managing to save three match points.

The world no. 15 is seeking his fifth career ATP title but is looking to lift his first trophy since prevailing in Tokyo two years ago. Just a few months ago, the 28-year-old finished runner-up in the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, his first ATP Masters 1000 final.

Novak Djokovic

This is Djokovic’s first time competing in Tokyo. Unfamiliar surroundings aren’t something that tend to faze the Serbian, who has won 10 tournaments in his main-draw debut. He entered the Japan Open as a -140 favorite.


The 32-year-old looks to be in top shape while competing in his first tournament since his fourth-round retirement due to a left shoulder injury at the US Open. He has yet to drop a set in Tokyo and dominated the fifth seed, Frenchman Lucas Pouille, 6-1, 6-2 in just 50 minutes in his quarterfinal match.

Goffin vs Djokovic Head-to-Head

Djokovic last played Goffin in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in July and won in straight sets.

The world no. 1 is 6-1 against the Belgian, all-time, with the last meeting on a hardcourt coming indoors at the 2016 ATP Finals in Great Britain where Djokovic easily won 6-1, 6-2.

Goffin’s only career victory over Djokovic came on clay in the quarterfinals of the 2017 ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo (6-2, 3-6, 7-5). 


41-8 2019 Record 29-21
3 2019 Singles Titles 0
19-5 2019 Hardcourt Record 13-12
6 Head-to-Head Record 1

Who’s the Best Bet?

Djokovic has not dropped a set in Tokyo, and he has broken serve 12 times in three matches. The world no. 1 is searching for his fourth victory in 2019 and the 76th title of his career.

Although the poised Belgian is 12-1 in the Japanese capital, Djokovic is the heavy favourite to win the ATP 500 tournament.

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