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ATP China Open Semifinals Odds & Pick: Zverev vs Tsitsipas

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 11:37 AM PDT

Alex Zverev hitting a forehand
Can Alex Zverev beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and advanced to the finals? Photo by Keith Allison (Wiki Commons).
  • Alex Zverev has yet to drop a set at the 2019 ATP Beijing Open
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas has played three-set matches in two of his three contests
  • Tsitsipas holds a 2-1 record in head-to-head matches, but Zverev is a -143 favorite

It’s been a by-the-book tournament at the China Open as the top-four seeds all reached the semis. No. 2 seed Alex Zverev and No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will now meet in the semis on Saturday. Who is the best bet between these two up-and-comers?

Zverev vs Tsitsipas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alexander Zverev -1.5 (-111) -143 Over 23 (-117)
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1.5 (-109) +123 Under 23 (-103)

Odds taken 10/04/19.

Zverev Has Impressed

Alex Zverev has had an up-and-down year – and an up-and-down career – but these are the kinds of tournaments he’s capable of winning. He’s played his best tennis of 2019 in the first three rounds of the China Open, winning six straight sets.

He’s played some decent players too, including Felix Auger-Aliassime and Sam Querrey.

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Zverev has hardly broken a sweat at this event, losing a total of 17 games in three matches. Things will get much harder for him in the semis, though, as Tsitsipas is one of the better players left in the field.

Tsitsipas Has Been Focused In China

Tsitsipas burst onto the scene during clay-court season when he had a number of impressive wins – including defeating Rafael Nadal. However, he faded down the stretch of the calendar, flaming out very early in tournaments on grass and hard courts.

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What was bizarre with Tsitsipas is he later publicly stated that he lacks motivation. That’s quite bizarre to hear from a 21-year-old having his first good season. He’s also grown to become close friends with Nick Kyrgios and it seems like he has a little bit of that volatility in him.

At any rate, Tsitsipas has played well at this event, for the most part. He’s made it all the way to the semis and he’s had a much tougher draw than Zverev. He had to beat Dusan Lajovic in the first round, which is a tough opener. Then he had to face Nikoloz Basilashvili and John Isner.

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Tsitsipas has dropped two sets already – one in each of the first two rounds – so he has not had smooth sailing. He had to come from a set down in each of those matches to win. He also needed a tiebreaker against Isner. In total, he’s lost 33 games, which is a lot more than Zverev’s 17.

Zverev vs Tsitsipas Statistical Comparison

Rafael Nadal
Daniil Medvedev
34-19 2019 Record 38-20
1 2019 Singles Titles 2
1 Head-To-Head Record 2
1 Sets Lost At 2019 Beijing Open 2
0 Seeded Players Defeated At 2019 Beijing Open 0

What’s The Best Bet?

Zverev and Tsitsipas have squared off three times in their career with each of the matchups coming within the last two years. Tsitsipas holds a 2-1 head-to-head edge. He lost their first matchup, which was on the hard courts in Washington. However, he’s won the last two matches between them at the 2018 Canadian Masters (hard) and at the 2019 Madrid Masters (clay).

What’s interesting to note is that the last two meetings between the players have been decided by very narrow margins. At the Canadian open, Tsitsipas won 3-6, 7-6 (11), 6-4; in Madrid, he won 7-5, 3-6, 6-2. There’s not a lot to separate these players.

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That theme has continued in this tournament as Zverev has played better of the two, but he’s also dealt with easier competition. At any rate, I do think that playing less tennis both indicates that he’s the sharper player right now and that he’s fresher. He has less tread on the tires here – for what that’s worth.

This is close to a toss-up but I lean with Zverev. I’ve been on him since the beginning. He has a little more experience in these types of tournaments and he’s looked really solid at the event. I’m expecting him to win and advance.

Pick: Zverev (-143)

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