Shelton vs Hurkacz Expert Picks & Predictions (Sep 2)

• Ben Shelton is a big -225 favorite over Hubert Hurkacz in Round 2 men’s singles action at the US Open
• Hurkacz’s serving profile gives the over a stronger case than either Shelton position
• See my Shelton vs Hurkacz picks and predictions, along with updated odds below

I am eagerly eyeing the US Open Men’s Singles Round of 64 as World No. 9 Ben Shelton squares off against 47th-ranked Hubert Hurkacz.

This matchup features Shelton as the heavy betting favorite and the the stronger overall profile but an opponent capable of extending sets and protecting serve.

The most crucial question for bettors is whether Hurkacz can turn his elite serving numbers into enough holds to push this match beyond 39.5 games. Evaluating the matchup through game totals rather than trying to lay a price with Shelton offers the better risk-reward angle.

Shelton vs Hurkacz goes at 1pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

American viewers will be able to catch the action on ESPN, while viewers in Canada can tune in on TSN.

Shelton vs Hurkacz Picks and Predictions

The Kalshi prices make Shelton the clear favorite, but that does not make either the moneyline or spread an attractive wager. Shelton’s 68¢ contract converts to approximately -213 American odds, while the 49¢ price for Shelton -3.5 games converts to roughly +104.

Those positions require Shelton to win decisively enough to justify the price. I prefer the total, where Hurkacz’s serve can contribute value even if Shelton ultimately advances.

• Pick: Over 39.5 Total Games (-117 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

O/U Prediction

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Kalshi

Over 39.5 Games

54%

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Over 39.5 games is my best bet at approximately -117 (54¢) at prediction market Kalshi. The price implies a break-even probability of about 53.9%, a more manageable threshold than backing Shelton at -213 or requiring him to cover a spread. A competitive four-set match gets to this number, and even a five-setter would offer substantial margin for the over.

Hurkacz’s serve is the key. He leads Shelton in aces per game (1.02 to 0.72) and first-serve points won (78.4% to 77.0%), while also posting stronger return-games-won and overall-dominance figures in the supplied metrics. Those numbers support the expectation that Hurkacz can avoid a string of routine breaks and keep sets close. Shelton’s aggressive game can still produce a win without necessarily producing the margin required by his moneyline or spread.

The under is less appealing because it needs a relatively clean, one-sided match, while Shelton’s favorite status alone does not establish that outcome. I am passing on both Shelton positions and making Over 39.5 games the only recommended play.

Shelton vs Hurkacz Odds

Odds as of Sept 2 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Shelton is a -225 favorite on the moneyline, but if you take him to win by at least four games on the spread, those odds pay out at a much more reasonable -120.

Hurkacz gets +175 odds for the outright upset, and that number dips to -120 if you bet on against the spread, as he is getting 3.5 games.

The total sits at 39.5 games, with -120 odds on either side of the wager.

Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz have no prior head-to-head history on the ATP tour.