Top US Open Picks & Predictions for Tuesday (Sep 1) – Best Bets for Svajda, Basavareddy

• Nishesh Basavareddy and Zachary Svajda are favorites in their US Open Round 1 matches Tuesday
• Heavy favorites look to avoid massive early-tournament upsets inside the baseline octagon
• See below for US Open Men’s picks and predictions for September 1

The 2026 ATP US Open Men’s Singles tournament continues in New York, bringing an action-packed slate to the table Tuesday.

While the top tier of the board features overwhelming chalk looking for a quick first-round submission, I am finding sturdy betting value in much tighter contests and specific run lines.

In this breakdown, I will analyze the day’s key matchups from a betting angle, evaluate the biggest favorites and live underdogs, and hand out my top picks to help you confidently navigate the board.

All matchups will be played at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows. You can catch the action on ESPN in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.

US Open Men’s Odds for Tuesday, Sept 1

Odds as of August 31. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Round 1 Picks and Predictions

• Pick #1: Arthur Gea ML vs uan Manuel Cerundolo (-108 at Polymarket)

With the spread sitting at a razor-thin -0.5 games in favor of Gea, I am bypassing the spread and simply taking his moneyline at -119. The Tennis Abstract Elo ratings give Cerundolo the higher overall mark (1,806.6 to 1,746.4), but the hard-court blend flips the matchup toward Gea, 1,759.9 to 1,707.2.

That surface edge is supported by the 52-week comparison: Gea leads in dominance ratio (1.199 to 1.078), breakpoints prevailed (1.486 to 1.228), service games won (81.6% to 80.1%), and return games won (27.9% to 24.2%). He also owns the stronger tiebreak record, winning 58.6% to Cerundolo’s 50.0%, which is valuable in a match priced this tightly.

Gea possesses the baseline striking and defensive discipline needed to keep Cerundolo under pressure, making the outright moneyline preferable to laying games.

• Pick #2: Nishesh Basavareddy -4.5 Games vs Tristan Schoolkate (-117 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Game-Spread Prediction

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Kalshi

Basavareddy -4.5 Games

54%

Predict

Nishesh Basavareddy has the clearer statistical case against Tristan Schoolkate, and the Tennis Abstract Elo and Tennis Ratio 52-week comparisons reinforce the spread rather than merely the moneyline. Basavareddy leads the overall Elo rating 1,701.3 to 1,546.1 and the hard-court hElo 1,653.9 to 1,508.1. The 52-week numbers show a substantial edge in match efficiency (1.734 to 0.872), dominance efficiency (1.182 to 0.888), breakpoints prevailed (1.250 to 0.986), return first-serve points won (29.2% to 27.0%), return second-serve points won (52.0% to 48.3%), and return games won (23.6% to 18.5%).

The matchup history adds another layer: Basavareddy beat Schoolkate in straight sets in their previous meeting, winning 56% of total points, 89% of service games, and 40% of return games. Both players arrive off three-match qualifying runs, but Basavareddy’s recent wins over Taylor Fritz and Arthur Gea show the higher ceiling on these hard courts.

With a 68.4% tiebreak-win rate compared with Schoolkate’s 50.0% and a superior return profile, Basavareddy has multiple paths to create separation. Instead of laying heavy juice on a moneyline, I am targeting -4.5 games at -117.

• Pick #3: Zachary Svajda ML vs Daniel Altmaier (-138 at Polymarket)

Svajda is the slight favorite in a competitive matchup, with the consensus moneyline pricing him around 1.64 in decimal odds, or roughly -167 in American odds. I prefer the moneyline to the -1.5-game spread because the market expects a close match, and a straight-set win is not required.

The case for the American is supported by the current Tennis Abstract Elo ratings and Tennis Ratio 52-week comparison: although Altmaier leads overall Elo, 1,733.6 to 1,705.2, Svajda has the slight hard-court hElo edge, 1,664.7 to 1,660.4, while also leading in dominance ratio (1.011 to 0.890), breakpoints prevailed (1.204 to 0.832), dominance efficiency (1.191 to 0.935), and match efficiency (1.272 to 0.912).

Svajda also owns the more reliable serve and return profile over the past 52 weeks, winning 81.4% of service games to Altmaier’s 77.2% and 22.7% of return games to 19.1%. He has the edge in first-serve points won (74.4% to 71.5%), second-serve points won (51.2% to 47.0%), break points converted (45.1% to 38.2%), and pressure points won on return (39.9% to 36.7%).

Svajda’s stronger current efficiency numbers and serve-return balance give him the narrow edge, so the moneyline is the better way to back him without requiring a straight-set result.