Pegula vs Kenin Best Bets & Predictions (Sep 2)
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- Jessica Pegula faces Sofia Kenin in Round 2 play at the US Open this morning
- The numbers point to backing Pegula against the spread
- Keep reading for my Pegula vs Kenin best bets and predictions for Sep 2, below
Jessica Pegula takes on Sofia Kenin in the 2nd Round of the US Open Women’s Singles this morning, at 11:30 AM ET. The match is scheduled for Arthur Ashe Stadium, with Pegula entering as the heavy favorite. She sits at No. 3 in the WTA singles rankings, while Kenin is ranked No. 110. Both women are fresh off straight sets victories, but there is a major gap in talent as I’ll explore.
Below, you’ll find my favorite Pegula vs Kenis best bets and predictions for this Sep 2 clash between American women.
Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Odds
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Last Updated on September 2, 2026.
The Pegula vs Kenin player-winner market strongly favors Pegula. Her 94¢ Yes price is approximately -1567, while Kenin’s 7¢ Yes price is approximately +1329. The handicap market is much closer: Pegula -6.5 games is priced at 49¢ (+104), compared with 53¢ (-113) for Kenin +6.5 games.
The total-games market gives the Over 17.5 a 58¢ price, or approximately -138, while the No side is 43¢, or approximately +133. Because the prediction markets total is 17.5 games and the sportsbook table lists 18.5, those markets should not be compared as identical lines.
Pegula vs Sofia Best Bets
Pegula -6.5 Games — Polymarket 49¢ (Approximately +104)
The spread offers a more attractive way to back Pegula than her 94¢ moneyline, which has no meaningful value at that price. Pegula’s recent hard-court results support her ability to create separation: she reached this stage with a straight-sets win over Gabriela Ruse and also posted wins over Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova, Sorana Cirstea, Emma Navarro and Belinda Bencic in the lead-up to this match.
The underlying numbers point in the same direction. Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison gives Pegula clear advantages in dominance ratio (1.482 to 0.826), breakpoints prevail (1.526 to 0.725), service games won (74.8% to 64.5%) and return games won (37.9% to 25.3%). She also wins more first- and second-serve points and saves more break points, while Kenin’s higher double-fault rate (0.44 per game versus 0.16) creates another path to breaks. The current Elo comparison from Tennis Abstract likewise favors Pegula, making -6.5 games the preferred Pegula position rather than the overpriced moneyline.
Prediction market Polymaket is currently offering the best price on this line, so bet there and grab the Polymarket bonus code to tail this wager.
Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin Predictions
Over 17.5 Total Games — Kalshi 58¢ (Approximately -138)
Kalshi’s total-games market prices Over 17.5 games at 58¢ Yes, equivalent to approximately -138. The No price is 43¢, equivalent to approximately +133. This market leans toward at least 18 games, even though Pegula is the overwhelming favorite on the moneyline.
The total price provides an important counterpoint to an automatic blowout prediction. Pegula can win in straight sets while still producing a match such as 6-4, 6-4 or 6-3, 6-4. Kenin’s best chance to reach the over is to protect her serve enough to extend both sets, while Pegula’s best route to the under is an early break in each set and sustained pressure on return. Make sure you claim the Kalshi promo code before making any tennis wager today.
Pegula vs Kenin Head-to-Head History
The head-to-head history gives Pegula a 4-2 advantage over Kenin. The most recent listed meeting went Pegula’s way in straight sets at the 2025 Charleston final, while Kenin’s 2021 French Open victory shows that she has been capable of disrupting Pegula’s rhythm. Pegula also won their earlier 2016 meeting in Dothan.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
