ATP Miami Open Quarterfinals Odds & Picks: Sinner vs Bublik & Medvedev vs Bautista Agut

• Two men’s quarterfinals will take place at the Miami Open Wednesday, at 3:00 pm and 8:30 pm EDT
• The early match is a surprise (Sinner vs Bublik); the late-nighter was expected (Medvedev vs Bautista Agut)
• Will Bautista Agut’s 2-0 head-to-head against Medvedev hold up? We break down both matches

The men’s singles field at the Miami Open has been winnowed down to eight. But pre-tournament favorite Daniil Medvedev remains the favorite.

And he’s expected to get through again Wednesday against Roberto Bautista Agut.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Odds

Odds as of Mar 31

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Jannik Sinner, a 19-year-old Italian whose rise up the rankings is as quick as was predicted by most, continues his run to the top 20.

Two years ago today, @janniksin won his second and last Future.

Later today he'll face #Bublik to achieve his first Semifinal in a Master 1000.#JanTheFox https://t.co/CK0nFjmIKq

— Jannik Sinner Updates (@JannikSinner_Up) March 31, 2021

The two met for the first time just a few weeks ago in Dubai. Sinner came back from a tough first set and eked out a 2-6, 7-6 (2), 6-4 victory.

Miami Weather Still a Factor

The match will take place in the heat of the Miami afternoon. And while the humidity has dropped a little bit from earlier in the week, it’s still well over 50-percent.

Their wear and tear is about equal.

Sinner had yet another marathon against Russia’s Karen Khachanov in the third round. Khachanov lost the first set in a tiebreak against American Taylor Fritz before prevailing 6-7 (3) 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round.

A screamer 😱

Alexander Bublik launches a 90 MPH winner past Taylor Fritz in Miami. #MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/kH3d8uXOCU

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 30, 2021

But Alexander Bublik’s match, helped by his 23 aces, took just two hours, 12 minutes.

Sinner had zero aces against Khachanov and looked the worse for wear after two hours, 50 minutes.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Head-to-Head

For the tournament, Sinner has just seven aces in three matches; Bublik has 37.

And yet statistically over the last 52 weeks, Bublik is the slightly better returner. That’s why this is a tough matchup for Sinner.

It’s a great opportunity for a huge result. We think he will seize it.

But taking Bublik (at +175) to win the first set is worth considering.

Best Bet: Sinner in three sets (+285)

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction

The No. 1 seed remembers his last match against the very solid Roberto Bautista Agut well.

And he said there were some extraneous circumstances that helped explain the score going in favor of his Spanish opponent.

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Odds

“The match in Cincinnati physically was a disaster for me. I had a tough time just before coming there. So was playing great tennis there, which I was surprised, but physically I was not able to hold the moment, and against somebody like Roberto, that’s important,” he said.

Medvedev pulled off an astonishing victory against Australia’s Alexei Popyrin in the third round, cramping from head to toe for much of the third set and limping around the court like a senior citizen.

Ultimate Warrior Spirit 💪@DaniilMedwed battled through the pain barrier in the closing stages to defeat Popyrin at @MiamiOpen… pic.twitter.com/RihFcQQ3HT

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 29, 2021

Once he got going, he made routine work of Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round and looks to be back on track.

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Head-to-Head

Bautista Agut the More Rested

Older by nearly seven years – Bautista Agut turns 33 in a few weeks – the Spaniard is the more rested of the two after having a walkover in his opening match.

His dramatic win over good friend John Isner (9-7 in the third-set tiebreak) in the previous round was wearing emotionally. But it took just two hours, 12 minutes so recovery shouldn’t be a problem.

Medvedev vs Bautista Agut Previous Matches

This matchup is principally a backhand-to-backhand clash, with both players impenetrable on that side.

You’d give Medvedev the edge on the serve and the forehand.

Best Bet: Medvedev in two sets (-129)

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