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ATP St. Petersburg Open Semifinals Odds & Picks: Rublev vs Shapovalov & Coric vs Raonic

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 7:52 AM PST

Andrey Rublev hits forehand shot
Russia's Andrey Rublev hits a forehand to Norway's Casper Ruud during their fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Monday, Feb. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Hamish Blair)
  • The semifinals of the St. Petersburg Open will take place Saturday, October 17
  • Two Canadians, Shapovalov and Raonic will be participating
  • Below are updated odds and breakdowns of both matches

The semifinals of the ATP St. Petersburg Open get underway Saturday at 7:00 am and 8:30 am EST. There’s no real surprise in who’s participating, as all four players’ St. Petersburg Open odds prior to the tournament were in the Top 10. The only big upset that’s happened is unseeded Reilly Opelka defeating No. 1 seed, Daniil Medvedev in the second round.

ATP St. Petersburg Open Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Andrey Rublev -1.5 (+102) -130 O 23.5 (-107)
[2] Denis Shapovalov +1.5 (-127 +106 U 23.5 (-118)
Player Spread Moneyline Total
[7] Borna Coric -2.5 (+118) +210 O 20.5 (-106)
[6] Milos Raonic +2.5 (-148) -265 U 20.5 (-120)

Odds taken Oct. 16 at DraftKings

[3] Rublev vs [2] Shapovalov

Rublev heads into this match having only lost one set over his three matches. He started his tournament by defeating another Canadian, Vasek Pospisil in straight sets. His recent quarterfinal match against Cameron Norrie has been his best all tournament, where he won 6-2, 6-1, and didn’t drop a serve.

Shapovalov enters this semifinal match, having played good tennis since the season came back. He’s won all three of his matches in Russia this week in straight sets. In his quarterfinal match against Switzerland’s Stan Wawrinka, he defeated him 6-4, 7-5.

Shapovalov and Rublev will face each other for the third time of their careers on Saturday. The Canadian, Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 2-1, with their first encounter coming back in 2017. Rublev won that first matchup at the Next Gen ATP Finals after five sets. But their last two meetings came in 2019, where Shapovalov won in straight sets both times. It’s good to note that all three matches have been played on hardcourt, the surface this tournament is played on.

Despite Rublev having the better odds going into the match at -130, Shapovalov looks to be the best bet here. His serve has been his strength all tournament, having recorded 25 aces. Both players are extremely powerful and have an explosive forehand. But the way Shapovalov has been playing this week, it looks like he’ll book his ticket to the final. Rublev will make it an interesting match, so expect it to go the full three sets.

Best Bet: Shapovalov (+106)

[7] Coric vs [6] Raonic

This will be another great semifinal match to watch. Neither Coric or Raonic has dropped a set all tournament, leading up to the semifinals. These two players have actually only played each other once before, three years ago at the Delray Beach Open, where Raonic won 6-3, 7-6(2).

Coric has had his fair share of success on hard courts since the tennis season has resumed, most notably making it to the quarterfinals at the US Open last month. In his quarterfinal match against American Reilly Opelka, Coric was able to come back after going down 2-5 in the first set. Opelka recorded 16 aces that match, but Coric was able to defeat him 7-6(3), 6-3 to advance to the semis.

Raonic has played impressive tennis all week. His notable strong serve has been there every game for him, making it very difficult for his opponents to return. The Canadian recorded 21 aces in his first round match against American JJ Wolf. He has yet to drop serve in the tournament, having only faced ten break points in six sets. In the quarterfinals, he was matched up against Russia’s Karen Khachanov, which he beat 6-1, 7-6(1), where he also recorded 15 aces.

Raonic is the favorite heading into this match and looks to be the best bet. His serve has been untouchable, although Coric is an excellent returner, and will probably be Raonic’s toughest match to date. But even though he’ll make Raonic’s life a little difficult, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to keep up with the power from the baseline. This should be a great match, like the other semifinal, being a tight three-match set.

Best Bet: Raonic (-265)

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