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ATP US Open Final Odds & Betting Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs Nadal

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 11:30 AM PDT

Rafael Nadal warming up
Can Rafael Nadal win his fourth US Open title on Sunday? Photo by The Cosmopolitan Las Vegas [CC License].
  • Daniil Medvedev takes on Rafael Nadal in the ATP Men’s Singles finals of the US Open on Sunday, September 8 at 4pm ET
  • Medvedev enters Sunday on a 12-match winning streak; Nadal has won 28 of his last 29 tennis matches
  • Get the full odds for the men’s finals

The 2019 US Open has come down to the final two on the men’s side: Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev.

For the most part, it’s not an entirely huge surprise as both players are red-hot right now. The question is who has the edge on Sunday (September 8 at 4pm ET) and which player is the best bet on the US Open odds? Let’s take a closer look:

Medvedev vs Nadal US Open Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Daniil Medvedev +7 (-115) +450 34 (-109)
Rafael Nadal -7 (-105) -545 34 (-111)

*Odds taken September 7

Medvedev Has Been King of Hard Courts

Although Medvedev is not exactly a household name just yet, he’s getting there. He’s been incredible this season, posting a record of 50-16.

He enters Sunday’s affair on a 12-match winning streak while also winning 20 of his last 22. He’s taken out good players too, including No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic in the semis at Cincinnati.

It’s worth noting that Medvedev’s path at the US Open has been quite light, though. He’s actually only played one seeded player to date – No. 23 Stan Wawrinka – as a lot of the landmines in his way were cleared.

Djokovic lost early, Roger Federer lost to unseeded Grigor Dimitrov, and Medvedev somehow faced a qualifier in the fourth round.

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Even so, no player on the tour has won more hard court matches than Medvedev this season. He has a chance of winning on Sunday.

Nadal Has Been Flawless

So you think Medvedev is hot right now? How about Nadal, who has won 11 straight matches and 28 of his last 29? On the season, he’s 47-6.

Nadal has always played well on hard courts when he’s been healthy and he’s in peak form right now. He has no ailments and his body has held up very well.

Nadal has absolutely breezed through the US Open as he’s lost just one set to date. He hasn’t had the toughest draw but there have been some challenges that haven’t slowed him down, including three straight players seeded in the 20’s in his last three matches.

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Nadal has been on the court around 12 hours in this tournament, which is almost nothing. Medvedev has needed four sets in four of his last five matches.

Nadal vs Medvedev Statistical Comparison

Rafael Nadal
Daniil Medvedev
47-6 2019 Record 50-16
2 2019 Singles Titles 2
1 Head-To-Head Record 0
1 Sets Lost At 2019 US Open 4
3 Seeded Players Defeated At 2019 US Open 1

What’s The Best Bet?

These were two of the favorites to win this event as Nadal was +325 going into the tournament while Medvedev was +1200. They were two of the top four in terms of odds.

While I’d like to take a shot with Medvedev, I would have bet him had he faced anyone but Nadal in this spot. Medvedev spoke of a couple of different injuries earlier in the tournament and while he’s persevered – and looked healthier as we’ve progressed – I’m still wary of betting him here.

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These two have only met once – the final of the Rogers Cup a few weeks ago – and Nadal cleaned him out 6-3, 6-0. Nadal is in absolute peak form, is one of the best players of all time, and has had very little trouble in the US Open. He’s only lost a total of 50 games; Medvedev has lost 46 games in his last three matches alone.

Considering Medvedev couldn’t beat Feliciano Lopez, Dominik Koepfer or Hugo Dellien in straight sets, it doesn’t bode well for his chances here. Nadal will put him away and conquer his fourth US Open title.

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