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Australian Open Picks – Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Semifinals Odds

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jan 26, 2023 · 7:31 AM PST

Stefanos Tsitsipas surrounded by fans
No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas surrounded by fans and cameras during this year's Australian Open, where he'll play the semifinal Friday against Karen Khachanov. (Photo: Stephanie Myles/OpenCourt.ca)
  • No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is the highest seed left in the Australian Open men’s singles
  • No. 18 seed Karen Khachanov is into his second consecutive Grand Slam semifinal
  • Tsitsipas is the favorite in the Khachanov vs Tsitsipas odds and has never lost to the Russian. We break down the match

This is the second consecutive Grand Slam semifinal for Karen Khachanov after he reached the final four at the US Open last summer. But No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the weekend four times at the Australian Open alone. We preview the match with our Khachanov vs Tsitsipas picks here.

Khachanov vs Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[18] Karen Khachanov (RUS) +4.5 (-125) +205 O 40.5 (-105)
[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) -4.5 (+100) -250 U 40.5 (-115)

Odds as of Jan. 26 at DraftKings. Use this DraftKings promo code to bet on the Australian Open.

Novak Djokovic still very much looms as the overwhelming favorite to win in the Australian Open odds. But a Djokovic – Tsitsipas final, in addition to bringing both of their considerable fan bases to Melbourne, would be the best outcome after an upside-down 2023 Australian Open.

Tsitsipas Looking Serene

It’s hard to get inside his head and measure how much pressure Tsitsipas, who will turn 25 in August, is feeling as he looks for another final.

He was crushed by Rafael Nadal in Melbourne in their 2019 semifinal. He was straight-setted by Daniil Medvedev in 2021, and while he did take a set from Medvedev in their rematch a year ago, he still lost in four.

Is this his time?

Tsitsipas has a good record against top-20 players at the Australian Open. He’s won five of his last eight, although he’s a fairly pedestrian 10-7 against the top 20 at majors and an, even more, pedestrian 61-54 against them at the ATP Tour/Slam level.

So there’s enough hope there for Khachanov, in that others around his ranking have beaten Tsitsipas on plenty of occasions.

Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Head-to-Head

Karen Khachanov
Stefanos Tsitsipas
26 (May 21, 1996) Age 24 (Aug. 12, 1998)
Moscow, Russia Birthplace Athens, Greece
6-6 Height 6-4
4 Career ATP Singles Titles 9
No. 8 (July 15, 2019) Career-Best Ranking No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021)
No. 20 Current Ranking No. 4
$12,265,034 Career Prize Money $23,655,204
36-25 2022 Won/Loss Record 61-24
0 Head-to-Head Wins 5

Khachanov in Tough

Khachanov’s problem, though, is that while Tsitsipas has lost to many top-20 players, the Russian himself doesn’t have much success against top-5 players (Tsitsipas is currently at No. 4).

Not only has Khachanov lost all five times he’s played Tsitsipas – he has won just two sets in those five meetings, although two of the last three have been pretty close – he has a 13-match losing streak against players ranked in the top five.

YouTube video

Khachanov has never defeated a top-five player at a Grand Slam (he’s 0-7). He’s 2-22 overall against top-five players; both of those came in 2018 at the Paris Indoor, when he won the biggest title of his career.

Khachanov vs Tsitsipas Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Rome (R16) Outdoor Clay 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2021 Masters Canada (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2 Tsitsipas
2021 Rotterdam (QF) Indoor Hard 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 Tsitsipas
2018 Masters Shanghai (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 7-6 (8) Tsitsipas
2017 Masters Shanghai (R64) Outdoor Hard 7-5, 6-3 Tsitsipas

Plenty of Rest for Both Tsitsipas and Khachanov

The two played their quarterfinals on Tuesday, so they had two full days of rest before facing each other on Friday. Khachanov had even more of a breather as he played the early afternoon match – and his opponent, Sebastian Korda, retired with a wrist issue in the middle of the third set, with the match clock at less than two hours.

Tsitsipas took care of unseeded Jiri Lehecka in straight sets and needed just 2h17 to do it, getting things wrapped up before midnight (a rarity during the first week of this tournament).

YouTube video

Both will be fresh, having spent about 12 hours on the court through five matches (Khachanov clocks in at 24 minutes more than Tsitsipas).

Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

As well as he’s playing, there really doesn’t seem to be a pathway for Khachanov to get past Tsitsipas and through to his first Grand Slam final.

Tsitsipas is playing top-flight tennis, and he will have a massive contingent of Melbourne’s Greek community on hand to support him.

It’s possible Khachanov might get off to a flier – he has before, in the two matches they’ve played that have gone the distance.

So if he does take a set, it’s likely to be the first set. But it would be a pretty major upset if he wins in the Khachanov vs Tsitsipas picks.

Khachanov vs Tsitsipas Picks:  A Four-Set Match (+170)

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