- 12 of the 16 seeds in the top half of the men’s singles draw survived to the third round
- With Rafael Nadal out, 2022 finalist Daniil Medvedev is the favorite in the Australian Open odds to make the final from this half
- Scroll down as we break down the third-round matchups, to be played Thursday/Friday ET and make our Australian Open picks
Rafael Nadal, the defending champion, is out. He has a tear in his iliopsoas muscle that will require 6-8 weeks to heal, even though he did finish up his match in a loss to unseeded American Mackenzie McDonald.
No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas (against Tallon Griekspoor) and No. 6 Félix Auger-Aliassime (against No. 28 seed Francisco Cerundolo of Argentina) are heavy favorites to win their third-round matches in Australian Open picks.
Australian Open Odds
| Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs Tallon Griekspoor (NED)||-1100 / +650|
| Sebastian Korda (USA) vs  Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||+350 / -475|
|Marton Fucsovics (HUN) vs.  Jannik Sinner (ITA)||+500 / -800|
| Hubert Hurkacz (POL) vs.  Denis Shapovalov (CAN)||-110 / -110|
| Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) vs.  Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)||+750 / -1400|
| Karen Khachanov (RUS) vs.  Frances Tiafoe (USA)||-105 / -115|
| Cameron Norrie (GBR) vs. Jiri Lehecka (CZE)||-310 / +240|
|Mackenzie McDonald (USA) vs.  Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN)||+130 / -160|
No. 15 seed Jannik Sinner is also a strong favorite, but not an overwhelming one, against Marton Fucsovics of Hungary.
Still, there is some potentially good value in the Australian Open odds in the close matchups. And an upset or two could loom. Keep up with the latest odds at our Australian Open odds tracker.
Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction
Hurkacz, the No. 10 seed, barely got past Lorenzo Sonego in a match that finished early Thursday morning, Melbourne time.
It lasted just seven minutes shy of four hours, and Hurkacz had to come back from a two-sets-to-one deficit.
A rain delay of more than five hours Wednesday meant that everything was backed up; Hurkacz wasn’t the only one who played into the wee hours in cold temperatures and wet, chilly wind.
Meanwhile, Shapovalov also finished quite late. But he avoided some potential trouble against Japan’s Taro Daniel and completed his victory in straight sets.
The odds on this one are dead even.
Given their respective strengths, you would expect Shapovalov might well come through.
Except for one thing: the two have played four times (all on outdoor hard courts) – and Hurkacz has won three of the four.
But they haven’t met in nearly two years; their last meeting came in Miami in 2021 – just a month after Shapovalov notched his only victory over the Polish star in Dubai.
Prediction: Shapovalov to win 1st set, and the match (+125)
Sebastian Korda vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Medvedev, the 2022 finalist, is the strong favorite at -475 to win this one.
But Korda was so impressive in defeat against Novak Djokovic in the Adelaide final just two weeks ago, in conditions similar to those in Melbourne (if a bit warmer).
How it started How it’s going
Djokovic x Korda pic.twitter.com/SpxXjXUcQK
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) January 10, 2023
The 22-year-old has come along a little more slowly than most predicted. But he’s due for a break out performance at a Grand Slam. And with the 2023 Australian Open missing world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz (injured), and with No. 1 seed Nadal and No. 2 Casper Ruud already out and Djokovic himself dealing with a possible hamstring tear, it’s wide open.
Medvedev has looked very good so far, dropping just three games in the first round and nine in the second. But he faced a mid-range American grinder named Marcos Giron in the first round, and a wild card in the second round.
Korda is at a different level.
He, too, has had a good draw. But Medvedev has to be feeling that this is his tournament to win – and that brings a lot of nerves and pressure with it.
The odds before the start of the event will look very, very different heading into the second week.
The first week is always the best time to try to knock off a contender.
Prediction: Korda to win outright (+350)
Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction
The American has made more of a splash in Melbourne because of his … colorful outfit.
But his tennis has been top-notch, as well.
Frances Tiafoe's fit in his opening match at the Australian Open 🎾
📺: ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/IdAmyhxWXx
— ESPN (@espn) January 16, 2023
He has had a good draw and has only dropped one set.
Tiafoe is 0-2 vs. Khachanov, but both matches came at Wimbledon on grass. Hard courts are Tiafoe’s happy place.
He is a very slight favorite. And we think he’ll take it.
Prediction: Tiafoe in Four Sets (+370)