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Brisbane International Final Odds & Pick: Pliskova vs Keys

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 10:56 AM PDT

Karolina Pliskova readying to hit a return shot
Sportsbooks are listing Karolina Pliskova as the -130 favorite to defeat Madison Keys in the WTA Brisbane International final. Photo by robbiesaurus (Wiki Commons).
  • Sportsbooks list Karolina Pliskova as the -130 favorite to defeat Madison Keys in the WTA Brisbane International final
  • Pliskova is the defending champion in the event
  • She’s won this tournament in two of the past three years – read below for our betting prediction

Karolina Pliskova has Madison Keys in the WTA Brisbane International final. Lately, Pliskova also has the keys to what it takes to win the Brisbane International.

The 27-year-old from the Czech Republic is the defending champion in the event. In fact, she’s won the tournament in two of the past three years.

No wonder then that sportsbooks have established the world’s second-ranked player as the -130 favorite to defeat Keys in the final, which is slated for 11pm ET Saturday.

Madison Keys vs Karolina Pliskova Brisbane International Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Madison Keys +105 +1.0 (-110) Over 22.0 (-110)
Karolina Pliskova -130 -1.0 (-120) Under 22.0 (-120)

Odds taken Jan. 10

This is the fourth time in as many years that Pliskova has at worst reached the semifinals of the Brisbane International.

Pliskova Staves Off Elimination

Naomi Osaka came into her semifinal against Pliskova on a roll. The world’s fourth -ranked player had won a career-high 14 matches in a row and was listed as a solid -200 favorite against world #2 Pliskova.

Pliskova found herself facing match point in the second set. After breaking Pliskova’s service, Osaka was serving for the match at 7-6(10), 6-5.

YouTube video

Pliskova dug deep and after saving match point at 40-30, she earned her first break of Osaka’s serve. Then she broke Osaka’s will.

Pliskova rallied to win the marathon two-hour, 48-minute match 6-7(10), 7-6(3), 6-2. The Czech player served eight of her 15 aces in the final set. She saved all six break points against her in the third set.

Pliskova never trailed after breaking Osaka’s service in the first game of the third set. She was able to save 12 of 13 break points during the match.

It’s her second trip to the final in a row and third in four years.

Osaka, meanwhile, exited the Brisbane International at the semifinal stage for the second year in a row.

Madison Keys Her Own Rally

The tournament’s #8 seed and the even-money underdog in the match, Keys found herself down a set and a break to Petra Kvitova in their semifinal. Keys trailed 6-3, 2-0 before staging her own comeback. By winning 12 of the final 15 games, the American took the match 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.

Keys has now defeated two-time Wimbledon champion and 2011 Brisbane International winner Kvitova in four of their seven meetings.

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A clash of two of the WTA’s most powerful players, Kvitova looked like she’d be the big hitter this time. She won five of the first six games of the match before the tide turned.

Keys advances to her 10th WTA final.

Feels Like The First Time

While the Brisbane International final is old hat for Pliskova, it’s all new to Keys. Two previous appearances saw her never advance beyond the second round of the tournament.

It’s also the first time that Pliskova and world #13 Keys have met on court.

Keys vs Pliskova

Madison Keys
Karolina Pliskova
13 World Ranking 2
0 Brisbane International Titles 2
5 WTA Titles 15
0-0 Head to Head 0-0
28-15 2019 Record 52-17
76.0 Service Games Won 78.6
33.6 Return Games Won 35.4

Pliskova is seeking to join Serena Williams (2013-14) as the only player to win back-to-back Brisbane International titles. Williams and her share the mark for most times winning this event with Victoria Azarenka (2009, 2016).

Pliskova is 10-1 in her last 11 matches at this tournament. The #2 seed, she was also the second seed while winning the event last year.

Her comfort zone on this surface, combined with the ability she’s displaying this week to remain poised when under pressure from her opponent, should give the Czech the edge over the American in this match.

Pick: Karolina Pliskova (-130).

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