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Brisbane International Semifinals Odds & Pick: Petra Kvitova vs Madison Keys

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 4:06 PM PDT

Kvitova after a big win.
Petra Kvitova is a small -125 favorite over Madison Keys for their semifinal showdown at Brisbane. Photo by Peter Menzel (Flickr).
  • No. 1 seed Ashleigh Barty and No. 4 seed Elina Svitolina both suffered upset losses in their first matches.
  • Madison Keys has yet to drop a set in the tournament
  • Petra Kvitova has dropped just one set in the tournament so far after losing in her first match at the event last year.

The 2020 Brisbane International has reached the semis on the women’s side. While one side of the draw has been by the book with the No. 2 and No. 3 seed surviving, the top half has been full of surprises as we’re left with No. 8 Madison Keys and No. 5 Petra Kvitova.

Which of the two is the best bet for tonight’s semifinal?

Petra Kvitova vs Madison Keys Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Petra Kvitova -125 -1.0 (-120) Over 22.0 (-105)
Madison Keys EVEN +1.0 (-110) Under 22.0 (-115)

Odds taken Jan. 10th

Top Half of Draw Loses Barty, Svitolina Early

The top half of the draw was supposed to be for either No. 1 Ashleigh Barty or No. 4 Elina Svitolina to claim, but both exited early.

Barty’s exit was particularly surprising not only because she’s the No. 1 seed, she’s playing on her home turf in Australia. The fans were behind her.

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However, Barty was bounced in her first match as qualifier Jennifer Brady ousted her in straight sets. At least Barty show a minimum amount of results (she lots 4-6, 6-7) but the same can’t be said for Svitolina. For a second straight year, she was bounced in her first match at Brisbane, this time winning just two games.

Kvitova Has Been In Control

Kvitova is one of the best hard-court players on the WTA Tour and so far, she’s looked great in Brisbane. A year after she dropped her first match at the tournament, she’s only dropped one set into the semis.

She knocked out Brady, who beat Barty and wild card Maria Sharapova, and Liudmila Samsonova in straight sets, and beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets.

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In fairness, she’s had a pretty easy path to this point. Pavlyuchenkova was a surprisingly tricky first match as she’s actually the No. 29 player in the world but the other two players she’s faced are not in the Top 50.

Keys Has Cruised

Keys has mostly looked just as good as Kvitova in the 2020 Brisbane International – if not slightly better.

She has played three matches so far and has yet to lose a set. As a matter of fact, she’s lost a total of just 18 games across her six sets of action.

So far, she’s cut through some decent competition as Danielle Rose Collins is the No. 27 player on the Tour right now, and she only lost five games to her. She also beat Sam Stosur, who is a recognizable name and a hometown favorite in Australia, but is ranked just No. 98 in the world.

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Keys didn’t play a ton of tennis last year – just 33 matches on the Main Tour – and she was just 12-6 on hard courts, so seeing her start off strong is a good sign. She was 16-9 on hard courts in 2018 and 15-5 in 2017.

Kvitova vs Keys Statistical Comparison

3-0 2020 Record 2-0
0 2020 Singles Titles 0
3 Head-To-Head Record 3
1 Sets Lost at 2020 Brisbane International 0
0 Seeded Players Defeated at 2020 Brisbane International 0

What’s the Best Bet?

This series is about as even as it gets as both of these players are ranked in the Top 15 and are 3-3 in their six meetings. The difference is that Keys won early, claiming the first three victories in this series, while Kvitova has won the last three. These two haven’t faced each other since 2016, though.

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This should be a close match but I see Kvitova as being the stronger of the two players. The trend in this series has definitely favored her and she’s coming off the stronger 2019 campaign where she finished 20-7 on hard courts and 37-16 overall. At -125, I’ll side with her in this spot.

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