Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Odds & Prediction – Cinch Championships Final
- Carlos Alcaraz is looking for his first career title on grass in the Cinch Championships final
- Underdog Alex de Minaur has one title, at Eastbourne in 2021, and has more grass experience
- Alcaraz is the betting favorite; read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
He’s a Grand Slam champion and has been No. 1, but Carlos Alcaraz arrived at Queen’s Club for the Cinch Championships this week with just six career matches on grass – all at Wimbledon the last two years.
Alcaraz vs de Minaur Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | -4.5 (+100) | -410 | O 21.5 (-118) |
| [7] Alex de Minaur (AUS) | +4.5 (-132) | +320 | U 21.5 (-112) |
At -410 odds, Alcaraz is the favorite in the Alcaraz vs de Minaur odds for Sunday’s final. Alex de Minaur is the underdog at +320 odds.
Alcaraz vs de Minaur odds as of June 24 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on the Alcaraz vs de Minaur match and receive a great promotion for new customers.
Alcaraz Learning Quickly on Grass
Alcaraz has already won as many matches this week (four) on grass as he had during his entire career to this point. Of course, he’s only 20 and his only previous experience was at Wimbledon the last two years.
His learning curve this week has been steep.
Alcaraz – as can be the case in his tournament-opening matches – struggled in the first round against lucky loser Arthur Rinderknech, who played some quality grass-court tennis but ended up beaten in a third-set tiebreak. After that, Alcaraz was untroubled against young Czech Jiri Lehecka, who had even less grass-court experience (0-for-3 a year ago in his debut on the surface).
The Spaniard also was relatively unchallenged against 32-year-old Grigor Dimitrov, a former champion at Queen’s and a Wimbledon semifinalist, who played his first professional match on grass when Alcaraz was just five years old.
Carlos Alcaraz brought the house down with this winner against Arthur Rinderknech after an absorbing rally at Queen's.
Alcaraz fought back from a set down to defeat his French opponent 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3) pic.twitter.com/zkFVeAswqs
— Guardian sport (@guardian_sport) June 21, 2023
Alcaraz was in command against Sebastian Korda in Saturday’s semifinal. And Korda, three years older, has already shown promise on grass with his great movement and silky strokes. But the Spaniard took him down 6-3, 6-4 as he served a little better, returned a lot better, and kept the unforced errors down relative to his opponent.
Alcaraz vs de Minaur Head-to-Head
| 20 (May 5, 2003) | Age | 24 (Feb. 17, 1999) |
| El Palmar, Spain | Birthplace | Sydney, Australia |
| 6-0 | Height | 6-0 |
| 10 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 7 |
| No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 15 (June 28, 2021) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 18 |
| $16,211,629 | Career Prize Money | $9,082,518 |
| 39-4 | 2023 Won/Loss Record | 21-12 |
| 1 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
For de Minaur, it’s been a standout week after a so-so run since winning the Acapulco tournament in early March.
He had gone a rather pedestrian 6-8 since then. But in London, he opened with a trouncing of Andy Murray, who had won two grass-court Challengers coming in and was on a roll; de Minaur gave up just four games.
Carlos Alcaraz: 20 years, 1 month, 18 days
Holger Rune: 20 years, 1 month, 25 days
Sebastian Korda: 22 years, 11 months, 18 days
Alex de Minaur: 24 years, 4 months, 6 daysThe semi-final lineup at the venerable Queen's Club is looking 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙩𝙝𝙛𝙪𝙡 this year 👀 pic.twitter.com/ki1iYHYGb8
— Eurosport (@eurosport) June 23, 2023
He then defeated Diego Schwartzman and Adrian Mannarino before taking on No. 2 seed Holger Rune.
Rune came into Queen’s Club having gone 0-3 in three events in 2022 (taking just one set in total), in his pro-grass-court debut. So winning three matches was already a victory.
But de Minaur’s superior grass experience showed in a fairly straightforward 6-3, 7-6 (2) win in which he saved all three break points he faced.
Alcaraz vs de Minaur Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Barcelona (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (4), 7-6 (4), 6-4 | Alcaraz |
There’s not much to draw from in terms of the head-to-head between the two. They’ve played only once, on red clay.
But it was a highly competitive match that Alcaraz barely squeaked through, even though clay is the only surface on which de Minaur has a sub-.500 record.
This will be the 15th ATP Tour final for Alcaraz, who is an impressive 10-3 in finals coming in.
And if he wins, he will become world No. 1 again and be the top seed at Wimbledon.
It’s the 12th final for de Minaur, who is 7-4 but does have a grass-court title on his resumé, at Eastbourne two years ago.
Alcaraz vs de Minaur Prediction
De Minaur is fleet of foot, but Alcaraz’s skill set on grass is blooming now. And he has so many more ways to win points than the 24-year-old Aussie.
Could be two close sets, though (over 23.5 games checks in at +134 odds).
Best Bet: Alcaraz and -4.5 Games (+100)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
