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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – French Open Semifinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jul 11, 2023 · 8:13 AM PDT

Novak Djokovic celebrating
Jun 6 2023; Paris,France; Novak Djokovic (SRB) celebrates winning his match against Karen Khachanov on day 10 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • The French Open semifinal is only the second career meeting between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz is the betting favorite over Djokovic
  • See  Alcaraz vs Djokovic odds, picks, and predictions for the 2023 French Open semifinals

Finally, for the first time in more than a year, longtime No. 1 Novak Djokovic and his heir apparent, Carlos Alcaraz, will meet on a tennis court – and in a Grand Slam semifinal – at the French Open on Friday (8:45 a.m. ET). Djokovic finds himself in an unfamiliar position heading into the match: a betting underdog.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -3.5 (-122) -200 O 38.5 (-116)
[3] Novak Djokovic (SRB) +3.5 (-108) +164 U 38.5 (-116)

At -200 odds, Alcaraz is the favorite in the Alcaraz vs Djokovic odds for Friday’s semifinal. Djokovic is the underdog at +164 odds. Alcaraz is also a -151 odds-on favorite to win the whole tournament in the latest French Open odds.


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Djokovic Scrambling to the Final Four

At 36, Djokovic admits that the aches and pains come more often, and take longer to heal. But with Rafael Nadal out for the year and unable to vie for his 15th French Open title, Djokovic was the only former champion in the field with a realistic shot at the title.

He has had some moments as he made his way through the draw. But nothing too dramatic or drastic.

YouTube video


Facing the unseeded and worn-out Juan Pablo Varillas of Peru in the fourth round – after Varillas had played three consecutive five-setters, two of them in which he came back from two sets to none down – was a bonus and a nice breather.

Alcaraz Killing the One-Handers

As for Alcaraz, who re-took the No. 1 ranking from Djokovic after the Rome tournament, he has had his way with some very high-quality opponents.

One by one, he knocked off three of the finest one-handed backhands in the game, all of them in straight sets.

First there was Denis Shapovalov (he lost seven games), then Lorenzo Musetti of Italy (he lost seven games). And in the quarterfinals, only a late surge from No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas made the final set competitive.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic
20 (May 5, 2003) Age 36 (May 22, 1987)
El Palmar, Spain Birthplace Belgrade, Serbia
6-0 Height 6-2
10 Career ATP Singles Titles 93
No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 1 (July 4, 2011)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 3
$15,536,017 Career Prize Money $167,296,242
35-3 2023 Won/Loss Record 25-4
1 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Because of Djokovic’s unvaccinated status, he has missed a lot of big events: the 2022 Australian Open, the 2022 US Open, Miami and Indian Wells and the Canadian Masters are just a few of them. And Alcaraz missed the 2023 Australian Open due to injury.  So the opportunities haven’t been there for these two to meet.

In fact, the Italian Open was the first time the two had even been in the same draw all season. And neither of them made the final there.

One Tight Previous Encounter

When they met in Madrid a year ago, on clay but with a faster level of play because of the altitude, they were on Alcaraz’s home turf.

YouTube video

It was an absolute barnburner; Alcaraz scraped it out in a third-set tiebreak.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Madrid Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-7 (5), 7-5, 7-6 (5) Alcaraz

But the best-of-five set format at the French Open makes this a completely different match.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Prediction

Evidence in Paris is that Alcaraz is playing his very best tennis. The same can’t be said for Djokovic, who looks to be nurturing a lingering elbow issue and the challenge of trying to break the deadlock with Nadal and get that record 23rd Grand Slam singles title.

He’s a master of the format, though. And even though he might not be at his best, he can typically find a way. erhaps the best returner in the world can do damage on Alcaraz’s serve.

For Alcaraz, who also has become a master at exploiting weaknesses, the problem is that he won’t really find any on the Djokovic side.

Alcaraz can hope Djokovic’s tetchiness during this event returns and somehow rattles him. He can try to hit him off the court. He can drop-shot him to death. Despite being the favorite, he’s going to need all of those things to try to the Serb out and prevent him from making history.

Best Bet: Alcaraz in Five Sets (+420)


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