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Carlos Alcaraz vs Pablo Carreno Busta Odds & Prediction – Swiss Indoors Basel Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Oct 27, 2022 · 9:57 AM PDT

Carlos Alcaraz
Sep 11, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) reacts after winning the third set tiebreaker against Casper Ruud (NOR) (not pictured) in the men's singles final on day fourteen of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz takes on country Pablo Carreño Busta in the Basel quarterfinals
  • Alcaraz, younger by 12 years, is a strong favorite to win Friday’s all-Spanish clash
  • Scroll down as we break down the matchup and make a prediction in the Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta odds

Carlos Alcaraz has played little since winning the US Open and becoming No. 1.

So it wasn’t surprising his opener in Basel was scratchy. But he seems to have gotten his rhythm back and is a fairly strong favorite to take out fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreño Busta in the quarterfinals on Friday in the Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta odds.

Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -3.5 (-150) -375 O 21.5 (-122)
[5] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) +3.5 (+117) +285 U 21.5 (-105)

Odds as of Oct. 27 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Basel Open.

Alcaraz had played just three matches since the end of the US Open – two in Davis Cup (one of which he lost to Félix Auger-Aliassime). And then, a first-round loss in Astana, in straight sets, to David Goffin.


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You figure he’s cashing some nice cheques to play these ATP 500 events, which doesn’t necessarily affect his effort level. But winning a Grand Slam at 19 is a tough thing to come down from.

Tough Opener vs Draper

Alcaraz didn’t get the easiest draw in Basel, either, as he came up against 20-year-old British lefty Jack Draper.

Draper is a rising player in the game, at a career-best No. 45 this week. He showed this summer that he’s got all the goods; in his case (much like countrywoman Emma Raducanu) it’s about building up his physical resistance to playing multiple matches at the top level.

Alcaraz got through it, coming back from a set down to win 7-5 in the third. But it was unconvincing, if unsurprising.

Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz
Pablo Carreño Busta
19 (May 5, 2003) Age 31 (July 12, 1991)
El Parmar, Murcia, Spain Birthplace Gijon, Spain
6-0 Height 6-2
6 Career ATP Singles Titles 7
No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 10 (Sept. 11, 2017)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 15
$9,133,865 Career Prize Money $14,976,584
54-11 2022 Won/Loss Record 35-22
1 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Carreño Busta’s Season-Ending Grind

The elder Spaniard (relatively speaking) hasn’t really capitalized on the momentum from winning the big Masters 1000 in Montreal last summer.

Since then, he did make the round of 16 at the US Open (losing in five sets to Karen Khachanov). But that was the only time until this week that he’s won back-to-back matches.

Squeezed in there was an unexpected opportunity to play an ATP Tour event in his hometown of Gijon, Spain. It likely was something he never expected, and it also likely was pretty draining.

He ended up losing his second match to the Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech, 18-16 in the final-set tiebreak.

And he lost his second match in Naples, Italy to Miomir Kecmanovic, before making the quick transition to indoor tennis in Basel, on a very quick court.

And he struggled to get past 20-year-old Swiss Dominic Stricker in the second round.

But he did get through.

Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Barcelona (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-2 Alcaraz

Carreño Busta is a solid, solid player.

His biggest quality is that if a more talented opponent is having a slightly off day, he’ll be there ready to pounce.

Which is not to denigrate his own considerable skill set.

But at this stage of the season, he’s on fumes – as are likely the majority of the top 20.

But that’s where the difference between 31 and 19 comes in. Even if Alcaraz is wiped out from his breakout season and ascension to No. 1, he still has that youthful exuberance – seemingly a neverending supply of it, at this stage.

Alcaraz vs Carreño Busta Pick

Had Alcaraz taken on Carreño Busta in his opening match, you’d have given Carreño Busta better odds of pulling off the upset.

But the No. 1 dismissed Botic Van de Zandschulp 6-4, 6-2 in his second-round match. So he’s more than likely gotten into the rhythm of the conditions.

Carreño Busta barely got past Stricker (winning just four more points than his opponent). The young Swiss is a lefty. But he’s also ranked No. 129, which is close to his career high.

Even if Stricker overachieved playing at “home”, Alcaraz is superior on every level.

He’ll also have the crowd.

Best Bet: Alcaraz in Two Sets (-137)


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