- Dan Evans and Denis Shapovalov, both unseeded, make it to the quarterfinals of the Erste Bank Open
- Shapovalov, ranked No. 19 to Evans’s No. 26, is the slight favorite in the match, scheduled for October 28
- Scroll down as we break down the Evans vs Shapovalov odds and matchup, and make a prediction
With the depth of the fields in both the ATP 500 tournaments this week in Basel, Switzerland and Vienna, Austria, it’s going to be a surprise when unseeded players – never mind two – make the final eight of either event.
But that’s what Dan Evans and Denis Shapovalov have done in Vienna.
Evans vs Shapovalov Odds
|Dan Evans (GBR)||+1.5 (-112)||+117||O 23.5 (+102)|
|Denis Shapovalov (CAN)||-1.5 (-114)||-143||U 23.5 (-127)|
No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 8 Matteo Berrettini were the two seeds in that section of the draw.
But Berrettini withdrew after the draw, after losing in the final of a “home” tournament in Naples to countryman Lorenzo Sonego. So that spot went to lucky loser Oscar Otte, beaten by Evans.
As for Shapovalov, he pulled out a terrific match in defeating Fritz 6-1, 4-6, 6-3. He had been 4-2 against Fritz during their careers, with all the matches played on hard courts. And when Shapovalov has been beaten, it was in three tough sets. But Fritz is having a much better year.
Fritz also hadn’t played in three weeks, since beating Shapovalov and then Frances Tiafoe in the final in Tokyo. And he had a marathon win the previous day against the very pesky Yoshihito Nishioka. So he might have been a bit low on energy.
But we also know what Shapovalov can do when he’s on song. And for much of this one, he was.
It’s his fourth consecutive quarterfinal at an ATP event. He might be due for a big result.
Evans Beats Khachanov
For Evans, after the break of facing Otte and not Berrettini in the first round, the draw worked out well.
He had been 2-0 against Karen Khachanov, who is ranked higher and can beat most players on his day.
— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 26, 2022
But as it happens, counterintuitively, Evans was 2-0 against the Russian. And both matches (in 2020) took place on indoor hard courts similar to the one in Vienna.
Those first two wins were comeback efforts, after dropping the first set. But on this day, Evans dispatched Khachanov in just 1h16, and won 65 percent of points on Khachanov’s second serve.
Evans vs Shapovalov Head-to-Head
|32 (May 23, 1990)||Born||23 (April 15, 1999)|
|Birmingham, England||Birthplace||Tel Aviv, Israel|
|1||Career ATP Singles Titles||1|
|No. 22 (Sept. 27, 2021)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 10 (Sept. 21, 2020)|
|No. 26||Current Ranking||No. 19|
|$6,160,467||Career Prize Money||$9,872,451|
|29-25||2022 Won/Loss Record||30-22|
Shapovalov Looking to Finish Strong
After beating Rafael Nadal in Rome in May, Shapovalov’s spring and summer were, for the most part, disappointing.
He went 5-11 between that win, and arriving in Seoul for the fall season that began in Asia. That was after taking a post-US Open break, skipping Davis Cup and Laver Cup.
It paid off; he made the final in Seoul, and the semifinal in Tokyo to get himself back in the top 20.
Evans vs Shapovalov Match History
|2022||ATP Cup (RR)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 6-4||Evans|
|2019||Miami Masters (R64)||Outdoor Hard||4-6, 6-1, 6-3||Shapovalov|
|2017||Davis Cup (WG 1R)||Indoor Hard||6-3, 6-3, 6-4||Evans|
|2016||Drummondville Challenger (SF)||Indoor Hard||4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4||Evans|
Evans, despite being the underdog in this one, is 3-1 against Shapovalov in his career.
The only Shapovalov win was in a tournament he had a great run to the semifinals in, the Miami Open back in 2019.
It’s not hard to see why; Evans is a player who changes pace and spins, uses the slice a lot, runs everything down and essentially forces Shapovalov into making decisions to shorten points because too much patience is required.
That lack of lucidity leads to errors. But if he’s having a hot day, he obviously can smother the Brit. It just hasn’t really happened yet.
Evans vs Shapovalov Pick
All of the odds and plays indicate this match is expected to be a long one.
So the over 2.5 sets bet (+125) looks like it has a good chance, with the risk higher and the rewards greater if you make a call on which player will win in three.
Is Shapovalov playing well enough to overwhelm Evans? Unclear, but you’d tend to think not.
Best Bet: Evans in Three Sets (+360)