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Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime Odds & Pick: ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament Semifinals

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam
Felix Auger-Aliassime and Pablo Carreno Busta will clash in the semifinals on Saturday. Photo by Roman Boed (Flickr).
  • Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger-Aliassime have advanced to the semifinals of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
  • Many of the top seeds have fallen early at this event, including No. 1 Daniil Medvedev and No. 2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • Find out how has the edge and in this upcoming match below

The ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament has moved into the semifinal round and one of the two showdowns will feature Pablo Carreno Busta of Spain versus Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada. Both players are unseeded at this event, so it’s a bit of a surprising matchup, but who has the edge in this showdown?

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Pablo Carreno Busta Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds
Felix Auger-Aliassime -2.0 (-145) -172 22.5 (-133)
Pablo Carreno Busta +2.0 (+125) +152 22.5 (+113)

Odds taken Feb. 14th.

Carreno Busta Has Surprised in Rotterdam

While there aren’t any of the Big 3 at this event, the seeded players haven’t done well in Rotterdam this year. No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, who was favored to win this tournament, lost in the first round. No. 2 Stefanos Tsitsipas fell in the second round.

Carreno Busta has mostly had an easy path to the semis as he did have to knock off countryman and No. 6 seed Roberto Bautista Agut, but he’s had two other fairly easy contests on his to-do list.

Of concern is that Carreno Busta isn’t exactly cruising through his matches. Each of his three showdowns have gone the full three sets. Against the No. 6 seed, that’s understandable. Against a wild card, that’s a bit worrying. The good news is he’s won the first set every time, so he hasn’t trailed in sets at any point at this event.

Auger-Aliassime Has Benefited From Seeds Falling

Auger-Aliassime has looked very good in Rotterdam but it is worth mentioning that he hasn’t really had to play any difficult opponents. He needed three sets to survive Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening round but beat Grigor Dimitrov and Aljaz Bedene in straight sets.

Auger-Aliassime has benefited from the top seeds falling as had everything gone according to play, he would have had to face No. 2 Tsitsipas and No. 8 Denis Shapovalov and then No. 4 David Goffin. Instead, he hasn’t played a seeded player to date and he won’t have to in the semis either.

Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime Statistical Comparison

Carreno Busta

6-3 2020 Record 7-6
0 2020 Singles Titles 0
0 Head-to-Head Record 0
3 Sets Lost at 2020 ABM AMRO World Tennis Tournament 1
1 Seeded Players Defeated at AMRO World Tennis Tournament 0

Who is the Best Bet?

These two players have never met before. While Carreno Busta is a veteran on the tour, Auger-Aliassime is just 19 years old, so he hasn’t been around a long time. Auger-Aliassime is the No. 21 player in the world while Carreno Busta is No. 30.

Auger-Aliassime is the favorite here because he’s the higher-seeded player and he’s probably the right bet. Carreno Busta has now survived three close calls and that’s a bit concerning – especially since he’s not exactly playing the best of the best.

For Auger-Aliassime, he doesn’t have a ton of experience with deep runs in ATP 500 tournaments but he’s still very young and this is a very manageable place for him to breakthrough. He’s just 7-6 on the year, so it makes me nervous laying juice with him. However, Carreno Busta was just 3-3 before this tournament.

It’s definitely not a bet I’m comfortable laying a lot on but I do like Auger-Aliassime to edge Carreno Busta and advance to the finals.

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