- First place in the Red Group at the ATP Finals should come down to Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev
- Matteo Berrettini’s participation is in doubt because of an injury, and Hubert Hurkacz is already 0-1
- This key matchup goes Tuesday at 8 am ET; read on for analysis and predictions
Daniil Medvedev was always the favorite to win the Red Group at this week’s ATP Tour Finals.
But Matteo Berrettini, who was playing in his home country and becomes an even more dangerous opponent with the home support, seems to be out of contention with an abdominal injury that occurred during his opening match against Alexander Zverev.
Even if he plays on, he’s not likely to be a factor. And if alternate Jannik Sinner steps in, he can only play two matches.
So the race is on between Medvedev and Alexander Zverev to win the group and potentially avoid Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-2.5 (-110)||-180||O 23.5 (-105)|
| Alexander Zverev (GER)||+2.5 (-125)||+145||U 23.5 (-130)|
Odds as of Nov. 15 at DraftKings
Russian Gets It Done vs Hurkacz
Medvedev didn’t have a lot of downtime after getting to the Paris Masters final a week ago. But even if he was stormed by ATP Finals rookie Hubert Hurkacz in the first set of their match Sunday, he regrouped quickly.
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Medvedev prevailed 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-4 and takes a 1-0 lead into Tuesday match with Zverev, who also is 1-0.
The 25-year-old Russian said the court in Torino was like lightning. But whatever court he’s on, it’s either too slow or too fast according to him.
And somehow he usually manages to get the job done.
The quick surface will make his serve even more effective. And he returns well enough overall to handle the extra verve it will give Zverev’s already gigantic delivery.
His only problem is that there won’t be any extra space behind the baseline, so he can’t stand even further back than he usually does and give himself even more time.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head
|25 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||24 (April 20, 1997)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||Hamburg, Germany|
|13||Career ATP Singles Titles||18|
|1||Career Grand Slam Singles Titles||0|
|No. 2 (March 5, 2021)||Career High Ranking||No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017)|
|No. 2||Current Ranking||No. 3|
|$20,389,856||Career Prize Money||$27, 585,875|
|55-12||2021 Won/Loss record||56-14|
|5||Career Head to Head||5|
Zverev Benefits from Berrettini Injury
It wasn’t the way Zverev wanted to win against his fellow Monte Carlo resident.
But after a highly-competitive first set he eked out 9-7 in the tiebreak, Berrettini felt a tear in his abdomen.
The Italian – with the jubilant home crowd behind him – tried. But he couldn’t even serve at 50 percent. So he was forced to retire in the second game of the second set.
Not how any of us wanted this one to end 😢
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 14, 2021
Zverev hopped right over the net and enveloped the teary Berrettini in a bear hug. He seemed quite shaken by it all.
But practically speaking, he saved himself some wear and tear and a potential defeat.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Match History
|2021||Paris Masters (SF)||Indoor Hard||6-2, 6-2||Medvedev|
|2021||ATP Cup (SF)||Outdoor Hard||3-6, 6-3, 7-5||Medvedev|
|2020||ATP FInals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-3, 6-4||Medvedev|
|2020||Paris Masters (F)||Indoor Hard||5-7, 6-4, 6-1||Medvedev|
|2019||ATP FInals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-4, 7-6 (4)||Zverev|
|2019||Masters Shanghai (F)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 6-1||Medvedev|
|2018||Masters Canada (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 6-2||Zverev|
|2018||Masters Miami (R64)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (5)||Zverev|
|2017||Washington (QF)||Outdoor Hard||6-2, 6-4||Zverev|
|2016||St. Petersburg (R16)||Indoor Hard||6-3, 7-5||Zverev|
Head-to-Head Dead Even
These two have played twice a season every year since 2018, even the pandemic-shortened 2020.
They are 5-5. But that’s very misleading. Zverev won the first four when he was already in the top five and before Medvedev was … Medvedev.
The Russian has won the last four. Twice, he has won in straight sets – including a curiously tame effort by Zverev in the semifinals two weeks ago in Paris.
Twice, he has come back from losing the first set to take the win.
The quicker court might change the dynamic a little. But Medvedev has shown he’s better in the clutch moments, and when he’s behind.
He dares Zverev to leave his comfort zone and raise the level.
Most often, the German hasn’t been up to the task.
Best Bet: Zverev wins the first set (+130); Medvedev wins the match (-180)