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Nitto ATP Finals Odds & Preview: Novak Djokovic Starts as +140 Favorite

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 13, 2021 · 9:04 AM PST

Daniil Medvedev of Russia holds up the winners trophy as confetti falls after defeating Dominic Thiem of Austria in the final of the ATP World Finals tennis match at the ATP World Finals tennis tournament at the O2 arena in London, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
  • The ATP Finals have relocated to Turin, Italy this year after more than a decade at London’s O2 Arena
  • Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t won the ATP Tour Finals since 2015, nevertheless is the odds-on favorite
  • The list of favorites exactly follows the seeding order. We break down the event, and pick a winner

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic generally is the favorite every year when the ATP Finals come along.

But he hasn’t won it since 2015. And in recent years, a number of underdogs have come along to take the year-end prize.

So it’s worth scrolling down the list of odds, and see who is in the best form.

Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Seed Player Odds
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) +140
[2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +275
[3] Alexander Zverev (GER) +550
[4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +900
[5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) +1400
[6] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) +1500
[7] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) +1800
[8] Casper Ruud (NOR) +2000

Odds as of Nov. 13 at DraftKings

Red Group the Stronger of the Two

Djokovic’s chances of making it through to next weekend looked even better once the two round-robin groups were drawn. And getting the lowest seed in the entire event as his opener is also a bonus.

But if few give newcomer Casper Ruud much of a chance, the other two players in the Green Group aren’t in great form.

Andrey Rublev hasn’t been a factor for months. He has won back-to-back matches just once since the US Open, and that was at a lower-level event just before Indian Wells.

An arm injury whose nature Tsitsipas declines to disclose but that he says he has been managing for years, has kicked in as this season winds down.

Tsitsipas was 39-9 through his run to the French Open final. Since then, he’s been a (relatively) pedestrian 15-9.

And in his opening match at the Paris Masters two weeks ago, he retired in the first set against Alexei Popyrin โ€“ only the second injury retirement in his pro career.

“Big 3” reign at ATP Finals Long Over

Either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer won the ATP’s year-end extravaganza every year from 2003-2015.

Djokovic himself won four straight through the end of that period. And the majority of the time, they faced a fellow “Big 3” member in the final.

But a lot has changed.

After Andy Murray won it as No. 1 back in 2016, the last four champions have been surprises to a lesser or greater extent. And the finalists also often have come from the lower seedings.

It makes taking Djokovic a tough call, despite his favored status.

Previous Nitto ATP Finals Winners and Finalists

Year Champion Finalist
2020 [4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) [3] Dominic Thiem (AUT)
2019 [6] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [5] Dominic Thiem (AUT)
2018 [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
2017 [6] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [7] David Goffin (BEL)
2016 [1] Andy Murray (GBR) [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
2015 [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) [3] Roger Federer (SUI)
2014 [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) [2] Roger Federer (SUI)
2013 [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
2012 [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) [2] Roger Federer (SUI)

Djokovic himself acknowledges that, having been there and done that so many times, others might be more motivated and fresh for a bucket-list win.

One Millennial โ€“ and Gen Z

The eight-man field includes Djokovic, who will be 35 next May, and seven players ranging in age from 22 to 25.


Most are a lot taller, serve harder, and have more velocity on their groundstrokes.

And yet, he’s still the king.

Opening Nitto ATP Finals Matchups

Group Players Odds
Red [2] Daniel Medvedev (RUS) vs. [7] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) -650 / +400
Red [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. [6] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) -265 / +195
Green [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. [8] Casper Ruud (NOR) -1000 / +550
Green [4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs. [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) -135 / +105

Hurkacz Can Empty the Tank

Unlike many of the others, first-time qualifier Hurkacz doesn’t have the looming spectre of the Davis Cup finals, which only begin in two weeks and run into December.

So he can truly empty the tank. He’s dangerous enough as it is, and a worthy underdog.

Zverev is in the same position, having decided not to play the Davis Cup event.

Medvedev has to get out of the tougher group, which he likely will do. But you’d think his path to the trophy could run through Djokovic in the semis.

The Russian is the defending champion, undefeated in the 2020 edition. But while he beat both Djokovic and Zverev in the round-robin portion, he didn’t have to face either of them in the semis or final.

Best Bet: Alexander Zverev (+550)

Longer Shot: Hubert Hurkacz (+1800)

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