- Aryna Sabalenka is a -450 favorite over Elina Svitolina in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday
- The two players have split their only two previous matches
- See the Sabalenka vs Svitolina odds, picks, predictions, and best bets below
Safe to say Tuesday’s quarterfinal between unranked Elina Svitolina and number two seed Aryna Sabalenka will feel much bigger than your run-of-the-mill tennis match. The two women represent opposing countries in the Russia-Ukraine war, and Svitolina has already refused to shake hands with both Russian women she’s ousted en route to this point. Read on for an analysis of Svitolina vs Sabalenka.
Politics aside, the tennis on Tuesday should be extremely compelling as both women enter in solid form. Online sportsbooks are heavily favoring the Belarusian Sabalenka, but don’t be surprised if Svitolina gives her all she can handle.
Svitolina vs Sabalenka French Open Odds
|Over 20.5 (+100)
|Under 20.5 (-120)
Sabalenka is currently a -450 moneyliine favorite, with Svitolina coming back as a +320 underdog. The Ukrainian is catching 5.5 games in the spread market, and as we’ll discuss, that’s where we see the value.
Elina Svitolina Betting Analysis
It wasn’t that long ago that Svitolina was the number three player in the world. She took an extended break last year and into 2023 for the birth of her first child, before returning to action at the start of April.
Her comeback got off to a slow start, losing her first three matches, but she found her form at a lower series tournament in France, before claiming the title in Strasbourg the week before the French Open began.
Elina Svitolina was out of top 1000 when she made her comeback on April 3rd
2 months later & she has a live ranking of #73
She wasn’t afraid to play ITF’s & small tournaments & do whatever it takes
Comeback story of the year. 💙💛
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) June 4, 2023
She started her Roland Garros run with a straight sets win over the 26th seed Martina Trevisan, and after back-to-back three-set victories in the second and third round, she dominated ninth seed Daria Kasatkina last time out.
The result ran her winning streak to nine matches and puts her back in the quarters at Roland Garros for a fourth time. She says she’s swinging more freely than ever before and is enjoying flying under the radar. Svitolina is 1-1 lifetime against Sabalenka, but this will mark the first time they’ve met since the War began.
Aryna Sabalenka Betting Analysis
As for Sabalenka, she’s yet to drop a set at Roland Garros. She boasts the second shortest French Open odds behind top seed Iga Swiatek and is looking to capture her second straight Grand Slam title after winning in Australia.
The 25-year-old is fresh off defeating former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the Round of 16 and has already made two finals in her first three clay starts this season. She claimed victory in Madrid defeating Swiatek for the title, after losing the previous week to her in Stuttgart.
Sabalenka has won a WTA Tour-high 33 matches so far, capturing three titles. She’d never made it past the third round at Roland Garros prior to this year and dropped her only meeting against Svitolina on clay.
Svitolina vs Sabalenka Stats
|ATP Final Appearances
Svitolina vs Sabalenka Pick
Sabalenka has advanced to the semis in back-to-back Grand Slams and while she’s got a great chance to make it three straight, Svitolina’s strong form will push her to the max.
Aryna Sabalenka was asked if she feels different, now that she knows how to win a Grand Slam:
“Roland Garros is completely different to Australian Open. It’s really good to have a Slam in your pocket, it gives you so much belief in these tournaments.” pic.twitter.com/sOZCQGtIwI
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) June 2, 2023
Both of their previous three matches went three sets and we should expect this one to be a tightly contested affair as well. Svitolina is the Cinderella story of this year’s tournament and she’s already proven her game is strong enough to beat some of the top women in the world. She’s an interesting outright pick at +320, but we’ll take the more conservative route and target her getting 5.5 games.
Pick: Elina Svitolina +5.5 Games (-125)