Garbine Muguruza vs Elise Mertens Odds & Prediction – Dubai Open Semifinals
- Garbine Muguruza and Elise Mertens will compete in the semifinals of the Dubai Open on Friday, March 12th at 8:00 AM ET
- The two players haven’t played a singles match against each other since 2016
- See below for the match odds and a preview heading into the semifinals
The final four players are all set in Dubai, and this semifinal match has ninth seed, Muguruza, the favorite over 10th seed Mertens.
Both players are playing some of the best tennis on tour right now, and this match is bound to be a close one. Muguruza is on a roll this tournament, and Mertens is looking to reach her third final in five tournaments.
Take a look below for the odds heading into this match, and how each player got here.
Muguruza vs Mertens Dubai Open Semifinal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [9] Garbine Muguruza | -3.5 (-129) | -240 | Ov 20.5 (-115) |
| [10] Elise Mertens | +3.5 (+102) | +188 | Un 20.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Mar. 11th from DraftKings
Muguruza’s Road to the Semifinals
The former World No. 1 has made the finals in two of the past four tournaments she has played, and will be looking to add to that here in Dubai. This is also her third career appearance in the semifinals at the Dubai Open, having appeared in both 2015 and 2018 as well.
She was playing lights out all tournament, before she had a slight hiccup in her quarterfinal match against Aryna Sabalenka, where she dropped the first set.
She went on to win 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, to beat Sabalenka for the second time in as many weeks, having defeated her in the Round of 16 at the Qatar Open on March 3rd.
In her quarterfinal match, she recorded 23 winners, with 20 unforced errors, and was able to convert five of 11 breakpoints. Sabalenka did record more winners with 26, but it was her 34 unforced errors that cost her the match.
Mertens will be Muguruza’s third seeded player she’ll have faced in the tournament so far. On top of Sabalenka, the Spaniard was able to defeat Polish star Iga Swiatek in the Round of 16, winning 6-0, 6-4.
The 27-year old will be looking to make her first final appearance at the tournament with a win against Mertens.
Mertens’ Road to the Semifinals
Muguruza will be Mertens’ first seeded player she’ll have had to face this tournament. She’s definitely had a clearer road to the semi’s than her opponent has.
Mertens is coming off a strong come from behind win against American Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. In a match that lasted almost three hours, Mertens was able to come back from being down 5-7, 2-5, to win 5-7, 7-5, 6-0.
While serving at 4-5 in the second set, we saw the turning point in the match. Mertens was able to save three match points.
Despite the win, Mertens did have over 10 double faults. If she’s not able to clean that up, she’s going to have major issues against Muguruza.
Head-to-Head
It’s been a while since these two players have played each other in a singles match.
Muguruza leads their head-to-head with the only win. That win came at the 2016 US Open, where the Spaniard actually dropped the first set, but came back to win 2-6, 6-0, 6-3.
Muguruza vs Mertens Head-to-Head Stats
| 16 | WTA Standing | 18 |
| 1 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
| 7 | WTA Singles Titles | 6 |
| 407/204 | W/L Singles | 326/173 |
Best Bet
Again, not only are these two players playing some of their best tennis, but they’re also playing some of the best tennis on tour right now. They’re both strong on offensive and look to attack the ball at any given opportunity.
Neither player is coming off an amazing quarterfinal match, both having to comeback after losing the first set. I will say that Muguruza is playing more consistent than Mertens. Mertens racked up her unforced errors, and had a lot of issues with her serve in her last match. These are two things that Muguruza will capitalize on in order to win.
If the Spaniard is able to continue with her strong serves, and the way she has been playing, I have no reason to believe that she can’t win the match, and make her first final appearance at this tournament.
The Pick: Muguruza (-240); 2-0 (+110)
A graduate of Sport Media at Ryerson University, Hayley is the ultimate student of sports. Whether she is playing it, watching it, debating it, or writing it, it's safe to assume sport consumes the majority of her life. She has worked both internationally and with the NBA.
