Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Odds & Prediction: WTA Ostrava Open Semifinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- The seeds ran true to form in Ostrava as No. 1 Iga Swiatek meets No. 4 Maria Sakkari in Saturday’s semifinal
- Sakkari leads Swiatek 1-0 in their head to head, beating the defending champ at the 2021 French Open
- Read on for our analysis of the matchup, and best bets
Iga Swiatek, the No. 1 seed, was the favorite to win the Ostrava Open before the start of the tournament.
It certainly wasn’t based on any particularly impressive feats on hard courts in 2021 by the Polish player, After a 10-1 run in winning Rome and reaching the French Open quarterfinals, Swiatek was a fairly pedestrian 8-5. That included a 4-3 record on hard courts. And only one of those hard-court victories came against a player ranked in the top 70.
But she has made the semis, defeating a couple of tough Kazakh customers in Yulia Putintseva and No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina in straight sets.
Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Iga Swiatek (POL) | -1.5 (-125) | -145 | O 21.5 (-115) |
| [4] Maria Sakkari (GRE) | +1.5 (-110) | +115 | U 21.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Sept. 24 at DraftKings
Sakkari Dispatches Martincova in Quarterfinals
Sakkari also hasn’t dropped a set in two matches. She took care of an erratic Jelena Ostapenko 6-4, 6-2 in her opening match (after a first-round bye).
Then she defeated Czech wild card Tereza Martincova 7-5, 6-3 in a surprisingly close contest Friday, to make the semifinals.
The key was her serve. Sakkari dropped just 7-of-31 points on her first serve. And even more impressively, just 5-of-18 on her second serve. Martincova had to play 50 percent more points on her own serve just to keep up.
Swiatek vs Rybakina a Slugfest
Meanwhile, Swiatek came up against a player who has had some pretty great runs on hard courts in her short career in Rybakina.
But the player from Kazakhstan has had nothing of the young rising player she was, before the pandemic hit. Since play resumed – and it’s been a year now – she’s been in a bit of a holding pattern.
The No.1️⃣ seed prevails! 👏
🇵🇱 @iga_swiatek defeats Rybakina 7-6, 6-2. She will face Maria Sakkari in the semifinals! 👀#OstravaOpen pic.twitter.com/bIh7XJdRHx
— wta (@WTA) September 24, 2021
Against Swiatek on Friday, on a court that favored her opponent, Rybakina’s clunky defense wasn’t nearly enough to hold back the top seed. Swiatek prevailed 7-6 (5), 6-2 after a tight first set that could have gone either way.
Once Rybakina lost that, her shoulders slumped and it seemed the air was let out of her tires. And that was pretty much it.
Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Head-to-Head
| 20 (May 31, 2001) | Age | 26 (July 25, 1995) |
| Warsaw, Poland | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-8 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Titles | 0 |
| No. 6 (Sept. 20, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 12 (Sept. 20, 2021) |
| No. 6 | Current Ranking | No. 12 |
| $4,409,403 | Career Prize Money | $5,098,164 |
| 33-11 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 33-15 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 1 |
Sakkari Dethroned 2020 French Open Champion in Paris
Swiatek and Sakkari have met just once before. But it was a pretty big occasion.
After mowing down her opponents to win the 2020 French Open at age 19, Swiatek faced Sakkari in a nervy but high-quality quarterfinal in June as she attempted to defend her title.
The defending champion had all the pressure. And she found herself facing an opponent who was as willing to go to the drop shot as she was.
She also didn’t appear to be 100 percent, suffering with a leg issue.
It’s not going to be the same type of match, tactically, on an indoor hard court. It will be much more of a power struggle.
Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | French Open (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 6-4 | Sakkari |
Swiatek Must Protect Second Serve
The keys to the match for Swiatek, to turn around that result in Paris, will be to protect her second serve better. She also must do a better job on break-point opportunities (she was 1-for-6).
Swiatek won just 43 percent of her second serves that day. And since her first-serve percentage was too low at 54 percent, Sakkari had a lot of looks.
Maria Sakkari snaps Iga Swiatek’s 22-set winning streak at Roland Garros, takes the first set 64.
Sakkari: 12W, 16UFE
Swiatek: 7W, 15UFESwiatek winning just 33% (5/15) behind 2nd serve in the 1st set. #RG21
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) June 9, 2021
She’ll also need to keep it cleaner. Even though those numbers skew differently on clay, she made far more errors than winners. Meanwhile, Sakkari was in the plus.
Sakkari’s defense is among the best on the WTA Tour. That asset, in the past, has been leveraged by opponents against Swiatek to force her into going for too much.
In the end, it’s a better matchup for Sakkari than it is for Swiatek. But it’ll be tight.
Best Bet: over 22.5 games (+115)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
