Upcoming Match-ups

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Odds & Prediction: WTA Ostrava Open Semifinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Sep 24, 2021 · 2:04 PM PDT

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari
Maria Sakkari of Greece reacts as she plays Poland's Iga Swiątek during their quarterfinal match of the French Open tennis tournament at the Roland Garros stadium Wednesday, June 9, 2021 in Paris. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)
  • The seeds ran true to form in Ostrava as No. 1 Iga Swiatek meets No. 4 Maria Sakkari in Saturday’s semifinal
  • Sakkari leads Swiatek 1-0 in their head to head, beating the defending champ at the 2021 French Open
  • Read on for our analysis of the matchup, and best bets

Iga Swiatek, the No. 1 seed, was the favorite to win the Ostrava Open before the start of the tournament.

It certainly wasn’t based on any particularly impressive feats on hard courts in 2021 by the Polish player,  After a 10-1 run in winning Rome and reaching the French Open quarterfinals, Swiatek was a fairly pedestrian 8-5. That included a 4-3 record on hard courts. And only one of those hard-court victories came against a player ranked in the top 70.

But she has made the semis, defeating a couple of tough Kazakh customers in Yulia Putintseva and No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina in straight sets.

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) -1.5 (-125) -145 O 21.5 (-115)
[4] Maria Sakkari (GRE) +1.5 (-110) +115 U 21.5 (-120)

Odds as of Sept. 24 at DraftKings

Sakkari Dispatches Martincova in Quarterfinals

Sakkari also hasn’t dropped a set in two matches. She took care of an erratic Jelena Ostapenko 6-4, 6-2 in her opening match (after a first-round bye).

Then she defeated Czech wild card Tereza Martincova 7-5, 6-3 in a surprisingly close contest Friday, to make the semifinals.

YouTube video

The key was her serve. Sakkari dropped just 7-of-31 points on her first serve. And even more impressively, just 5-of-18 on her second serve. Martincova had to play 50 percent more points on her own serve just to keep up.

Swiatek vs Rybakina a Slugfest

Meanwhile, Swiatek came up against a player who has had some pretty great runs on hard courts in her short career in Rybakina.

But the player from Kazakhstan has had nothing of the young rising player she was, before the pandemic hit. Since play resumed – and it’s been a year now – she’s been in a bit of a holding pattern.

Against Swiatek on Friday, on a court that favored her opponent, Rybakina’s clunky defense wasn’t nearly enough to hold back the top seed. Swiatek prevailed 7-6 (5), 6-2 after a tight first set that could have gone either way.

Once Rybakina lost that, her shoulders slumped and it seemed the air was let out of her tires. And that was pretty much it.

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Head-to-Head

Iga Swiatek
VS
Maria Sakkari
20 (May 31, 2001) Age 26 (July 25, 1995)
Warsaw, Poland Birthplace Athens, Greece
5-9 Height 5-8
3 Career WTA Singles Titles 1
0 Career Grand Slam Titles 0
No. 6 (Sept. 20, 2021) Career High Ranking No. 12 (Sept. 20, 2021)
No. 6 Current Ranking No. 12
$4,409,403 Career Prize Money $5,098,164
33-11 2021 Won/Loss record 33-15
0 Career Head to Head 1

Sakkari Dethroned 2020 French Open Champion in Paris

Swiatek and Sakkari have met just once before. But it was a pretty big occasion.

After mowing down her opponents to win the 2020 French Open at age 19, Swiatek faced Sakkari in a nervy but high-quality quarterfinal in June as she attempted to defend her title.

YouTube video

The defending champion had all the pressure. And she found herself facing an opponent who was as willing to go to the drop shot as she was.

She also didn’t appear to be 100 percent, suffering with a leg issue.

It’s not going to be the same type of match, tactically, on an indoor hard court. It will be much more of a power struggle.

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-4 Sakkari

Swiatek Must Protect Second Serve

The keys to the match for Swiatek, to turn around that result in Paris, will be to protect her second serve better. She also must do a better job on break-point opportunities (she was 1-for-6).

Swiatek won just 43 percent of her second serves that day. And since her first-serve percentage was too low at 54 percent, Sakkari had a lot of looks.

She’ll also need to keep it cleaner. Even though those numbers skew differently on clay, she made far more errors than winners. Meanwhile, Sakkari was in the plus.

Sakkari’s defense is among the best on the WTA Tour. That asset, in the past, has been leveraged by opponents against Swiatek to force her into going for too much.

In the end, it’s a better matchup for Sakkari than it is for Swiatek. But it’ll be tight.

Best Bet: over 22.5 games (+115)

Author Image