Karolina Pliskova vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – US Open Quarterfinals
- Karolina Pliskova and Aryna Sabalenka will put on a power-hitting clinic in their US Open quarterfinal
- The former No. 1 and former No. 2 are 2-2 on the head-to-head in their careers
- Read on as we break down the matchup and see if favorite Sabalenka can pull off the win
Aryna Sabalenka is a defending semifinalist at this year’s US Open.
Karolina Pliskova is a defending quarterfinalist. And she also has two other quarterfinals and a final (in 2016) on her resumé – the most successful Grand Slam tournament for her.
Pliskova vs Sabalenka Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [22] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) | +1.5 (-109) | +116 | O 21.5 (-121) |
| [6] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | -1.5 (-112) | -137 | U 21.5 (+100) |
Odds as of Sept 6 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the US Open
But both have fallen on tough times this season.
Pliskova a Late Start to 2022
Sidelined by a broken arm suffered during a fall in the gym during the offseason, Pliskova didn’t even start her 2022 campaign until Indian Wells.
And she didn’t win back-to-back matches until Strasbourg, the week before the French Open. It’s been slow; the Czech only sported a 15-14 won-loss record coming into the US Open.
Karolina Pliskova explains the arm injury that ruled her out of the first two months of the season.
"I fell down in the gym. I was doing some jumps and fell down and I broke [the radius bone in the right arm]. I heard a click. It was fully broken.” pic.twitter.com/Mvdh6iOosa
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) March 12, 2022
But she announced her return to form with a semifinal effort in Canada a few weeks ago, beating Barbora Krejcikova, Amanda Anisimova and Maria Sakkari on the way.
Pliskova has not had an easy draw at all. It has included escaping in a match tiebreak in her opening round against Magda Linette, and coming back from a set down to upset No. 13 seed Belinda Bencic.
In the fourth round, she survived a throwback battle between 30-something former No. 1s with No. 26 seed Victoria Azarenka that went three sets and lasted more than three hours.
Pliskova vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
| 30 (March 21, 1992) | Age | 24 (May 5, 1998) |
| Louny, Czech Republic | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 6-1 | Height | 5-11 |
| 16 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 10 |
| No. 1 (July 17, 2017) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) |
| No. 22 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $23,807,420 | Career Prize Money | $10,683,065 |
| 19-14 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 28-17 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
Sabalenka Battles Past Collins
For Sabalenka, who hit her career high of No. 2 just before last year’s US Open (and made the semifinals), it’s been the serving yips that have gotten to her.
It’s much improved now from the start of the season, where her serves would sometimes bounce before they even hit the net.
But it’s always looming in the background. And Sabalenka has done extremely well in handling its regular re-appearance and winning her fair share of matches even if she has also taken some tough losses.
This Collins – Sabalenka match is extremely yelly and I'm here/hear for it! #USOpen pic.twitter.com/eglKFDZLBZ
— Neil 🇺🇦 (@NeilGetReal) September 6, 2022
The Belarussian’s full-throttle match with Danielle Collins Monday night took nearly 2 1/2 hours. And while Sabalenka balanced the double faults with aces (eight of each), it was Collins’s serve that failed her, with 12 double faults.
Pliskova vs Sabalenka Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Montreal (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Pliskova |
| 2021 | Wimbledon (SF) | Grass | 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 | Pliskova |
| 2018 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 | Sabalenka |
| 2018 | Eastbourne (QF) | Grass | 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 (5) | Sabalenka |
This quarterfinal is a great opportunity for both to turn the corner during challenging seasons and get some momentum before the 2022 home stretch.
Tough Match to Call
Given both have had frailties this year, it’s tough to pick a winner. Especially as their head-to-head is 2-2, and that all but one of those encounters have gone the distance.
Pliskova has won the last two, at big events and at the business end of those events. A US Open quarterfinal would qualify on that front.
Sabalenka has been around, at 24. But Pliskova has a lot more experience.
And she also appears to have a comfort zone with the US Open courts and conditions even if the … demonstrative Sabalenka would appear to be the better fit in Flushing, and has professed her love for the event on more than one occasion.
Both had long, draining round-of-16 matches in the humidity. So no big edge there.
Pliskova vs Sabalenka Pick
Both Pliskova and Sabalenka remain down the current US Open odds list as far as winning the tournament.
We’re calling for a marathon in this one, which is scheduled for noon ET on September. 7. Given the forecast, it could end up being played under the Arthur Ashe Stadium roof.
Pliskova’s game is less likely to break down under pressure, which is why we think she’ll eventually pull it out and cause the upset.
Best Bet: Pliskova in Three Sets (+390)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
