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Karolina Pliskova vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – US Open Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Sep 6, 2022 · 2:58 PM PDT

Karolina Pliskova
Sep 5, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Victoria Azarenka reacts during a match against Karolina Pliskova of Czech Republic on day eight of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
  • Karolina Pliskova and Aryna Sabalenka will put on a power-hitting clinic in their US Open quarterfinal
  • The former No. 1 and former No. 2 are 2-2 on the head-to-head in their careers
  • Read on as we break down the matchup and see if favorite Sabalenka can pull off the win

Aryna Sabalenka is a defending semifinalist at this year’s US Open.

Karolina Pliskova is a defending quarterfinalist. And she also has two other quarterfinals and a final (in 2016) on her resumé – the most successful Grand Slam tournament for her.

Pliskova vs Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[22] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) +1.5 (-109) +116 O 21.5 (-121)
[6] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -1.5 (-112) -137 U 21.5 (+100)

Odds as of Sept 6 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the US Open

But both have fallen on tough times this season.

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Pliskova a Late Start to 2022

Sidelined by a broken arm suffered during a fall in the gym during the offseason, Pliskova didn’t even start her 2022 campaign until Indian Wells.

And she didn’t win back-to-back matches until Strasbourg, the week before the French Open. It’s been slow; the Czech only sported a 15-14 won-loss record coming into the US Open.

But she announced her return to form with a semifinal effort in Canada a few weeks ago, beating Barbora Krejcikova, Amanda Anisimova and Maria Sakkari on the way.

Pliskova has not had an easy draw at all. It has included escaping in a match tiebreak in her opening round against Magda Linette, and coming back from a set down to upset No. 13 seed Belinda Bencic.

In the fourth round, she survived a throwback battle between 30-something former No. 1s with No. 26 seed Victoria Azarenka that went three sets and lasted more than three hours.

Pliskova vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Karolina Pliskova
Aryna Sabalenka
30 (March 21, 1992) Age 24 (May 5, 1998)
Louny, Czech Republic Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
6-1 Height 5-11
16 Career WTA Singles Titles 10
No. 1 (July 17, 2017) Career-Best Ranking No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)
No. 22 Current Ranking No. 6
$23,807,420 Career Prize Money $10,683,065
19-14 2022 Won/Loss Record 28-17
2 Head-to-Head Wins 2

Sabalenka Battles Past Collins

For Sabalenka, who hit her career high of No. 2 just before last year’s US Open (and made the semifinals), it’s been the serving yips that have gotten to her.

It’s much improved now from the start of the season, where her serves would sometimes bounce before they even hit the net.

But it’s always looming in the background. And Sabalenka has done extremely well in handling its regular re-appearance and winning her fair share of matches even if she has also taken some tough losses.

The Belarussian’s full-throttle match with Danielle Collins Monday night took nearly 2 1/2 hours. And while Sabalenka balanced the double faults with aces (eight of each), it was Collins’s serve that failed her, with 12 double faults.

Pliskova vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Montreal (SF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Pliskova
2021 Wimbledon (SF) Grass 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 Pliskova
2018 Cincinnati (R32) Outdoor Hard 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 Sabalenka
2018 Eastbourne (QF) Grass 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 (5) Sabalenka

This quarterfinal is a great opportunity for both to turn the corner during challenging seasons and get some momentum before the 2022 home stretch.

Tough Match to Call

Given both have had frailties this year, it’s tough to pick a winner. Especially as their head-to-head is 2-2, and that all but one of those encounters have gone the distance.

Pliskova has won the last two, at big events and at the business end of those events. A US Open quarterfinal would qualify on that front.

Sabalenka has been around, at 24. But Pliskova has a lot more experience.

And she also appears to have a comfort zone with the US Open courts and conditions even if the … demonstrative Sabalenka would appear to be the better fit in Flushing, and has professed her love for the event on more than one occasion.

Both had long, draining round-of-16 matches in the humidity. So no big edge there.

Pliskova vs Sabalenka Pick

Both Pliskova and Sabalenka remain down the current US Open odds list as far as winning the tournament.

We’re calling for a marathon in this one, which is scheduled for noon ET on September. 7. Given the forecast, it could end up being played under the Arthur Ashe Stadium roof.

Pliskova’s game is less likely to break down under pressure, which is why we think she’ll eventually pull it out and cause the upset.

Best Bet: Pliskova in Three Sets (+390)

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