Marcos Giron vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Odds & Prediction – ATP Italian Open Round of 16
- No. 8 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime takes on lucky loser Marcos Giron for a spot in the Rome quarterfinals
- The match will be played Thursday, May 11 at about 7 am ET
- Scroll down as we break down the matchup and predict whether the favorite will prevail
Félix Auger-Aliassime might have been expecting another epic clash in Rome with No. 12 seed Diego Schwartzman of Argentina. Instead, it will be Giron vs Auger-Aliassime as the lucky loser Marcos Giron, a 28-year-old American, upset Schwartzman in straight sets Wednesday.
Giron vs Auger-Aliassime Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [LL] Marcos Giron (USA) | -3.5 (+102) | +350 | O 20.5 (-120) |
| [8] Félix Auger-Aliassime | +3.5 (-129) | -480 | U 20.5 (-106) |
Odds as of May 11 at Barstool Sportsbook
Recovery Day for Auger-Aliassime After Tough Opening Win
It wasn’t looking good for the 21-year-old Canadian, when he was stretched out flat on his back after dropping the first set on Tuesday to worthy adversary Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
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Davidovich Fokina had taken him to four gruelling sets in the high heat at the Australian Open before bowing out.
And the Spaniard was a tiebreak away from the upset on Tuesday before Auger-Aliassime stayed the course, and finally rolled through the third set.
It could very easily have gone the other way; Auger-Aliassime has had glimmers of goodness during this extended clay-court season, but there have been no consistent results upon which to build his confidence at crunch time.
His victories in Madrid came against good players – Jannik Sinner and Cristian Garin – who barely showed up on the day.
Once the adrenaline of the match Tuesday wore off, Auger-Aliassime might have found himself mighty sore.
But the schedule worked in his favour, with the off day.
Giron vs Auger-Aliassime Head-to-Head
| 28 (July 24, 1993) | Age | 21 (Aug. 8, 2000) |
| Thousand Oaks, Calif. | Birthplace | Montreal, Canada |
| 5-11 | Height | 6-4 |
| 0 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 52 (March 21, 2022) | Career High Ranking | No. 9 (Jan. 10, 2022) |
| No. 60 | Current Ranking | No. 9 |
| $2,008,784 | Career Prize Money | $6,998,972 |
| 8-12 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 22-11 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 1 |
Career Week for Giron
This is already a career week for Giron, a Southern Californian who has overcome some significant injury challenges in his life.
He’s already virtually guaranteed to be at a career-high-ranking and in the top 50 with what he’s already done in Rome.
If he can beat Auger-Aliassime, he’d leap into the top 40 and be virtually guaranteed direct entry into the remainder of the Masters 1000 tournaments this year. Financially, it’s a huge boost.
Giron was beaten by Tallon Griekspoor of the Netherlands in the final round of qualifying, but squeezed into the main draw when Madrid Open champion Carlos Alcaraz bowed out of Rome late.
His win over the mercurial but talented Alexander Bublik in the first round was already impressive.
Beating Diego Schwartzman in straight sets, on clay, was unexpected.
Giron vs Auger-Aliassime Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Halle (QF) | Grass | 6-3, 6-2 | Auger-Aliasssime |
One match on grass, during a week Auger-Aliassime was on fire, is probably not much of a gauge of how this clay-court clash will play out.
Giron vs Auger-Aliassime is Roadrunner vs Shotmaker
With a player like Giron, most of the time, the more aggressive opponent’s form is usually the difference maker.
If Auger-Aliassime’s serve and forehand are firing, he should be able to overpower Giron – and make this a sweet third-round warmup before a potential quarterfinal showdown with No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
If they’re not – and that’s too often been the case in the last few months – Giron is the kind of player who will keep making balls, keep taunting Auger-Aliassime to go for more than he’s comfortable with, simply because he doesn’t trust his big weapons to come through during long rallies on this day.
Rome really brought the atmosphere out tonight🙌🏽🇮🇹 Happy to make it out on the winning end of this battle 💪🏽 https://t.co/HwlZoaUnIl
— Félix AugerAliassime (@felixtennis) May 11, 2022
It’s almost impossible to predict which Auger-Aliassime will rock up.
Even Auger-Aliassime himself may not know until he wakes up Thursday, and until he actually starts the match.
So the Canadian’s inconsistency make his huge outright odds to win the match seem awfully ambitious.
As far as tennis prop bets go, take the under 20.5 games at -106. Auger-Aliassime also should beat the -3.5 game spread (-129).
Assuming “good Felix” shows up.
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime in Two Sets (-152)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
